Israel's 1981 Nuclear Strike on Iraq Had Unintended Consequences

Strategic Insights -

The Israeli raid on an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 has been hailed as a win for nonproliferation, but a closer examination reveals that it may have actually spurred Saddam Hussein's desire for a nuclear weapon. The strike, carried out with the assistance of US military hardware, destroyed the Osirak reactor and killed 10 Iraqi soldiers and a French civilian. However, the Israeli government argued that the attack was necessary to prevent Iraq from developing a nuclear arsenal, and it set back the country's nuclear ambitions by at least a decade.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Israeli strike on the Osirak reactor in 1981 was not as successful as it seemed, as it actually pushed Iraq's nuclear program underground and spurred Saddam Hussein's desire for a nuclear weapon.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had safeguards in place to monitor Iraq's civilian nuclear program, but the Israeli government believed that the French-built reactor was a threat to national security.
  • Iraq's nuclear program was characterized as "both directionless and disorganized" before the Israeli attack, but the strike sparked a drive to develop a nuclear weapon.
  • The Israeli attack was followed by Saddam Hussein's decision to establish a formal nuclear weapons program, with scientists pursuing multiple methods to enrich uranium to weapons grade.
  • The nuclear program progressed fitfully from 1981 to 1987, facing organizational and scientific challenges, and was eventually dismantled in the aftermath of Operation Desert Storm.
  • Iran, like Iraq in 1980, is a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and its nuclear program is subject to IAEA monitoring.

Statistics:

  • 10 Iraqi soldiers and a French civilian were killed in the Israeli strike on the Osirak reactor.
  • 1970: Iraq joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
  • June 7, 1981: Israel bombed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq.
  • 1981-1987: Iraq's nuclear program progressed fitfully, facing organizational and scientific challenges.
  • 1990: Iraq invaded Kuwait, provoking a military response from the US.
  • 1991: U.N. weapons inspectors discovered and dismantled the clandestine Iraqi nuclear weapons program.
  • 2011: A study by nuclear proliferation expert MÈÑlfrid Braut-Hegghammer found that the Israeli attack "triggered a nuclear weapons program where one did not previously exist."

Sources:

  • The Conversation -- Global Perspectives -- By Jeffrey Fields, Professor of the Practice of International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences
  • Jacques Pavlovsky/Sygma via Getty Images
  • Israel Press and Photo Agency/Wikimedia Commons
  • Sygma via Getty Images
  • Ramzi Haidar/AFP via Getty Images
  • Carnegie Corporation of New York
  • Schmidt Futures
  • International Security journal