Israel's Air Defences Under Siege: Iran Launches Satellite Attack, Breaches Israeli Defences

Strategic Insights -

Despite Israel's robust air defence system, which includes the Iron Dome and Arrow 2 and 3 missile systems, Iranian forces have managed to breach its defences through sheer volume of missiles and overwhelm its stockpile systems. Israeli officials have warned that hostilities could continue for "weeks, not days" as Iran launches between 10 and 12 missiles per attack, with an estimated range of nearly 1,000 miles.

Key Takeaways:

  • Israeli air defences have achieved a high success rate of around 90% in intercepting Iranian missiles, but the sheer volume of attacks has allowed some missiles to breach defences.
  • Iran has used a variety of missiles, including the Shahab-3, Emad, Haj Qasem, and Fattah-1, some of which have manoeuvrable re-entry vehicles and are harder to detect.
  • Israeli officials believe that Iran has "thousands" more missiles in reserve, in addition to the estimated 2,000-3,000 missiles that could reach Israel.
  • The Israeli Defence Forces' air superiority over Iran has "exacerbates this challenge for Iran" as many missiles and launchers are being pre-emptively struck.
  • Iranian state media has claimed that Israel was hit by the Haj Qasem guided ballistic missile, but Tal Inbar, an Israeli space and missile expert, has disputed this claim.
  • The Arrow 3 missile system has been particularly effective against high-altitude threats, but its effectiveness is limited by the number of interceptors available.
  • Iran's Revolutionary Guards have claimed to have developed a new method to target Israel's layered defence systems, but this claim has been disputed by Israeli officials.

Statistics:

  • Estimated number of missiles in Iran's weapons stockpile before the latest conflict with Israel began: 2,000-3,000.
  • Estimated number of Iranian missiles launched in total: 200-300.
  • Estimated number of Iranian missiles launched per day: 10-12.
  • Estimated range of the Haj Qasem guided ballistic missile: nearly 1,000 miles.
  • Success rate of Israeli air defences: around 90%.
  • Number of Iranian missiles that breached Israeli defences: unknown, but significant enough to suggest that hostilities could continue for "weeks, not days".

Sources:

  • Inbar, Tal. Israeli space and missile expert, quoted in The i Paper. (No date provided)
  • Kaushal, Sidharth. Senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) in London, quoted in the article. (No date provided)
  • "Iran Launches Satellite Attack on Israel", Institute for the Study of War. (No date provided)
  • "Israel's Air Defences Under Siege", The i Paper. (No date provided)