Israel's Nuclear Ambiguity: A Threat to Global Order

Strategic Insights -

The Israeli government's stance of "defending itself by any means necessary" has led to preemptive strikes, assassinations, and cyber operations, often without oversight or consequence. In contrast, Iran has suspended efforts to build a nuclear bomb since 2003, according to US National Intelligence Estimates, and has allowed international inspectors into its nuclear sites under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Meanwhile, Israel has never declared its nuclear arsenal, which is estimated to be between 80 and 90 warheads, and operates outside international frameworks of transparency and accountability.

Key Takeaways:

  • Israel's preemptive strikes on nuclear facilities in other countries, such as Iran, Syria, and Iraq, have destroyed infrastructure, risked triggering chain reactions, and undermined international norms.
  • Israel's nuclear capability is neither under international safeguards nor subject to any verification regime, making it a major concern for global security.
  • The international system cannot and should not tolerate a world where might makes right, and where the perception of danger becomes the only threshold for war.
  • Israel's actions undermine the global norms that have kept nuclear proliferation in check, including treaties, verification mechanisms, and diplomatic negotiations.
  • The US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018, supported by Israel, collapsed a functioning framework for nuclear oversight.
  • The stakes are high for Asean countries and the Global South, where the normalisation of preventive warfare undermines regional stability and undermines efforts to create a Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone.

Statistics:

  • 80-90: Estimated number of nuclear warheads in Israel's arsenal.
  • 2003: Year in which Iran suspended efforts to build a nuclear bomb.
  • 2018: Year in which the US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, collapsing a functioning framework for nuclear oversight.

Sources:

  • UE (United States) (2003). National Intelligence Estimate: Iran nuclear capabilities.
  • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). (n.d.). Iran's nuclear programme.
  • Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (n.d.). Iran nuclear deal.
  • PHAR KIM BENG. (n.d.). Israel's nuclear ambiguity: A threat to global order.