Israel's War on Gaza: A Ceasefire on the Horizon?

Strategic Insights -

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to focus on celebrating Israel and the US's self-anointed victory against Iran and discussing a proposal for a ceasefire in Israel's war on Gaza during his visit to the United States. Experts are skeptical about the chances of a permanent ceasefire, citing Netanyahu's demands for a "total victory" over Hamas and the fact that the Israeli government has shown no willingness to negotiate a sustainable end to the war. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is also under pressure to deliver on his promise to end the war, but his track record suggests that he may be more interested in striking grandiose deals to boost his reputation.

Key Takeaways:

  • The proposed ceasefire entails a 60-day pause in hostilities and a phased release of some of the 58 Israeli captives held in Gaza since a Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
  • Analysts are skeptical about the chances of a permanent ceasefire, citing Netanyahu's demands for a "total victory" over Hamas and the Israeli government's refusal to negotiate a sustainable end to the war.
  • US President Donald Trump is expected to discuss the proposal with Netanyahu, but his track record suggests that he may be more interested in striking grandiose deals to boost his reputation.
  • Netanyahu's far-right coalition is fragile, and a permanent ceasefire could lead to its collapse, which could be a significant blow to Netanyahu's political power and his ability to undermine the Israeli judicial system.
  • The decision to pardon Netanyahu lies with Israel's President Isaac Herzog, but such a move would be unprecedented, and Herzog has not indicated that he plans to do so.
  • Analysts believe that Trump may be trying to pressure Netanyahu's opponents to issue a pardon in exchange for ending the war on Gaza.

Statistics:

  • At least 57,000 people have been killed in Israel's war on Gaza, mostly women and children, since the start of the conflict.
  • 58 Israeli captives are being held in Gaza, with a proposed ceasefire to release some of them.
  • The proposed ceasefire is expected to last for 60 days, with a phased release of captives and a pause in hostilities.
  • The Israeli government has spent millions of dollars on the war on Gaza, with much of it going towards military aid and equipment.

Sources:

  • "Trump lambasts Iran's Khamenei, says he would bomb country again" by Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/27/trump-lambasts-irans-khamenei-says-he-would-bomb-country-again)
  • "Hamas responds to US-backed Gaza ceasefire proposal in a positive spirit" by Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/4/hamas-responds-to-us-backed-gaza-ceasefire-proposal-in-a-positive-spirit)
  • "Israel sending negotiating team to Qatar for Gaza ceasefire talks" by Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/5/israel-sending-negotiating-team-to-qatar-for-gaza-ceasefire-talks)
  • "Is a ceasefire realistic?" by Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/5/israel-sending-negotiating-team-to-qatar-for-gaza-ceasefire-talks)
  • "US President Donald Trump: Israel has agreed to conditions for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza" by Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/5/us-president-donald-trump-israel-has-agreed-to-conditions-for-a-60-day-ceasefire-in-gaza)