Italy's Resurgence: Mario Draghi's Impact on the EU

Strategic Insights -

Mario Draghi's presidency has dramatically shifted the dynamics of the EU, with Italy emerging as a credible partner and a driving force behind the continent's economic recovery. Less than four months into his tenure, Draghi has faced criticism from some quarters that expectations for his leadership have become overly optimistic, with concerns that he may struggle to meet the high standards set by his predecessor. However, Draghi's diplomatic skills, immense credibility, and unwavering commitment to European institutions have earned him the respect and admiration of his counterparts in Paris and Berlin.

Key Takeaways:

  • Draghi's government plans to spend €190bn of EU loans and grants alongside structural reforms, marking a significant departure from Italy's previous reputation as a force disrupting EU cohesion.
  • The former European Central Bank president has announced the largest budget deficit since the early 1990s, with financial markets displaying confidence in his leadership.
  • Relations between Rome and Paris have blossomed under Draghi's tenure, with Macron and Draghi maintaining regular calls to discuss strategic issues and the pandemic.
  • Draghi's blocking of exports of Covid-19 vaccines outside the EU was a critical turning point, providing diplomatic cover for the European Commission and strengthening his credibility amongst European leaders.
  • The Italian government is expected to maintain a significant parliamentary majority until 2023, ensuring Draghi's continued leadership and influence on EU policymaking.
  • Draghi's diplomatic outreach has led to improved relations with key EU partners, with France's Europe minister, Clement Beaune, describing the relationship as "good and easy."

Statistics:

  • €190bn: The planned EU loans and grants investment in Italy under Draghi's government.
  • €190bn: The largest budget deficit since the early 1990s announced by Draghi's government.
  • 2022: The year in which French national polls are expected, with Patrice François suggesting that this could see a shift in the EU's influential power dynamics.
  • 2023: The year of Italy's next general election, with Draghi's government expected to maintain a significant parliamentary majority.

Sources:

  • Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a thinktank based in London.
  • Clement Beaune, France's Europe minister and former Europe adviser to Macron at the Elysee.
  • Alexander von Lambsdorff, foreign policy spokesman for Germany's liberal FDP party.
  • Enzo Moavero Milanesi, Italy's foreign minister under the first government of Giuseppe Conte.
  • Georgina Wright, head of the Europe programme at the Paris-based Institut Montaigne, a think-tank.
  • Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute for International Affairs think-tank in Rome.