John Tory's Potential Mayoral Run Sparks Intensity in Toronto Politics

Strategic Insights -

As the 2026 mayoral election heats up, John Tory's former adversaries are stepping up their attacks on the former mayor, including the affair he resigned over, amidst speculation that he may run against incumbent Olivia Chow.

John Tory, who stepped down as mayor in February 2023 after a relationship with a staffer almost 40 years his junior was revealed, has been considering running in the October 2026 mayoral election. Three sources with knowledge of Tory's deliberations told the Star that while he has yet to make a call about entering the race, he has recently been in talks with political operatives who would be key to a future campaign. The sources said they believe he's more likely than not to launch a 2026 mayoral bid.

Key Takeaways:

  • Tory has been in talks with key political insiders, including his former fundraiser Andy Pringle, about a potential campaign for the 2026 mayoral election.
  • Three sources with knowledge of Tory's deliberations believe he's more likely than not to run in the 2026 election.
  • A fourth source, however, expressed conflicting views, stating that Tory is not leaning one way or the other.
  • There are conflicting views among Tory's allies about whether he should run, with some believing it would risk undermining his legacy, and others encouraging him to return to politics.
  • Tory has significant support from former council allies, ex-staffers, and the local business sector, if he decides to run.
  • A Forum Research poll found that 36% of respondents back Chow, while Tory placed second with 30% in a hypothetical mayoral contest.
  • Tory has been advised not to delay his decision too long, as it could give little time for others to put a campaign together.

Statistics:

  • 40 years: The age difference between John Tory and the staffer he developed a relationship with.
  • 95%: One source's estimate that John Tory will run in the 2026 mayoral election.
  • 65%: Another source's estimate that John Tory will run in the 2026 mayoral election.
  • 4%: The margin of error in the Forum Research poll.
  • 19: The number of times the poll's accuracy is said to be met out of 20.

Sources:

  • Toronto Star
  • Forum Research
  • Mahdis Habibinia