Jordan Bombings: Understanding the Motivations and Implications

Strategic Insights -

The recent hotel bombings in Amman, Jordan have left over 50 people dead and many more injured, raising questions about the motivations behind the attacks and the implications for the region. According to Jon B. Alterman, Director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the bombings are not a direct result of the joint US/Iraqi counter-offensive on the Syrian border, but rather an issue within Jordan itself.

Key Takeaways:

  • The bombings are likely a result of the Jordanian government's plans to roll out a national agenda that would move the country more firmly in a pro-Western, globalized direction, as well as the king's meetings with Israeli officials.
  • Al-Qaeda had significant terror plots foiled in Jordan in the past, including a plot to bomb 5-star hotels on the eve of the millennium.
  • The average Jordanian shrugs and acknowledges their grievances with both sides, but as nationals die, the public begins to turn against the perpetrators.
  • The attackers chose Jordanian hotels because they have less security than US military bases in Iraq, making them an attractive target.
  • Al-Qaeda's attack on Jordan is partly due to their visceral hatred of King Abdullah, shared by many for similar reasons as his admiration in the West.
  • The bombings are likely to draw Jordanians together as Jordanians, marginalizing the jihadis and reducing the urge of many young Jordanians to fight with and die for al-Qaeda in Iraq or elsewhere.
  • The Saudi role among foreign fighters in Iraq is the hardest to discern and the one about which there is the greatest controversy.
  • The attacks have sparked demonstrations against the perpetrators, with many Jordanians condemning the violence and showing support for the government.
  • The Jordanian government will likely increase security measures, including mandatory metal detectors at hotels and banks, but it won't prevent future attacks with certainty.

Statistics:

  • Over 60% of Jordan's population is ethnically Palestinian, with many grievances against the government, including discrimination in employment, voting, and education.
  • The US government has been working closely with Jordanian intelligence services, which have been increasingly effective in preventing attacks.
  • Israel has a significant security presence, including guards and screening, but still suffers from attacks.
  • The likelihood of other Arab Gulf countries being affected by the bombings is uncertain, but it's likely to remind them of the importance of persistent vigilance on terrorist threats.

Sources:

  • Bombings Kill More Than 50 At Three Hotels In Jordan, (Washington Post, Nov. 10, 2005)
  • Quote by Jon B. Alterman on the Jordanian government's plans and the king's meetings with Israeli officials
  • Discussion on the Saudi role among foreign fighters in Iraq
  • Statistics on the demographics of Jordan's population
  • Article on the Jordanian government's response to the bombings
  • Discussion on the US government's efforts to prevent attacks
  • Quote by Jon B. Alterman on the likelihood of other Arab Gulf countries being affected by the bombings