Katsina Communities Negotiate with Armed Groups Amid Fears of Renewed Violence

Strategic Insights -

Local communities in Katsina State have entered into negotiations with armed groups, sparking fears of a repeat of a sequence where the collapse of peace agreements led to renewed violence. The talks, which involve bandits accused of leading raids and abductions, aim to halt attacks on villages, allow farmers safe passage, and release abducted persons in exchange for freedom of movement and market access for Fulani and development of their areas. The negotiations have raised concerns among security analysts, who warn that similar peace efforts in the past have collapsed after armed groups regrouped and expanded their reach.

Key Takeaways:

  • The negotiations involve bandits accused of leading raids and abductions, including Alero and Kwashe Garwa, who is on Nigeria's most-wanted terrorists list.
  • The talks aim to halt attacks on villages, allow farmers safe passage, and release abducted persons in exchange for freedom of movement and market access for Fulani and development of their areas.
  • Similar peace arrangements have been struck in Jibia and other frontline areas, with residents negotiating directly with bandit leaders for safe passage and cessation of raids.
  • Governor Dikko Radda has acknowledged the negotiations, describing them as "locally-made, community-owned initiatives" that have resolved crises in four of Katsina's eight high-risk councils.
  • Analysts caution that similar peace efforts in Katsina and Zamfara between 2019 and 2021 collapsed after armed groups regrouped and expanded their reach.
  • Many residents continue to pay "taxes" and levies to bandits despite claims of peace.
  • Katsina has suffered years of killings, kidnappings, and displacement, with over 1.3 million people uprooted across the North-west since February 2025, according to the International Organisation for Migration.

Statistics:

  • Over 1.3 million people have been displaced across the North-west since February 2025 (International Organisation for Migration).
  • 4 out of 8 high-risk councils in Katsina have seen resolutions of crises through locally-made, community-owned initiatives (Governor Dikko Radda).
  • 6-10 frontline local government areas have seen similar peace arrangements struck between residents and bandit leaders (PREMIUM TIMES).
  • 19 people, including Kwashe Garwa, are on Nigeria's most-wanted terrorists list (Hausa media).

Sources:

  • PREMIUM TIMES (multiple reports)
  • International Organisation for Migration (estimation of displaced persons)
  • Governor Dikko Radda's statement on conflict prevention project
  • Hausa media reports on banditry and negotiations