Kazakhstan's Nuclear Power Plant Decision: A Complex Balance of Geopolitics and Environmental Risks

Kazakhstan has selected Russia's state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom to build its first nuclear power plant (NPP) since Soviet times, despite earlier indications that China's CNNC would win the bid. The decision has sparked public opposition due to environmental risks, including concerns about nuclear waste disposal and water scarcity. The construction of the NPP poses significant economic and environmental risks, as well as uncertainties related to funding and potential sanctions.

Key Takeaways:

Kazakhstan has chosen Rosatom to construct its first NPP since Soviet times, despite concerns about environmental risks and the company's problematic record in building a NPP in Belarus.
The NPP is planned to be constructed on Lake Balkhash, which is already experiencing drying and may face further degradation from plant operations.
Kazakhstan's water resources are stagnating, and the situation is forecasted to aggravate further by 2037, when construction is expected to be finished.
Rosatom is likely to head an "international consortium" rather than build the NPP single-handedly, which reduces some risks associated with the choice of a Russian service provider.
Environmental risks have sparked public opposition, and experts emphasize that there is currently no known way to manage nuclear waste safely, meaning this issue would be inherited by future generations.
Rosatom's record in building a NPP in Belarus includes accidents, a lack of transparency, and long delays.
The selection of Rosatom poses economic and environmental risks, including the potential for direct and indirect economic losses in the event of environmental incidents or sanctions.
Kazakhstan is exploring the possibility of exporting green hydrogen to the European Union, which could be jeopardized by an incident on the construction site or following the official launch of the NPP.
The financial aspect of the project remains unclear, and Kazakhstan is considering collaboration with Chinese or South Korean companies moving forward.
Russia's ability to provide necessary funding for the construction of the NPP in full and without delays is uncertain, similar to the construction of the NPP in Belarus.

Statistics:

468 instances of nuclear weapons testing occurred between 1949 and 1989 on the territory of Soviet Kazakhstan (UN, August 29, 2023).
18,000 incidents of varying scales had occurred during the construction of the Belarusian NPP and afterwards (Greenbelarus.info, December 22, 2021).
Russia is likely to offer a long-term export credit to Kazakhstan for the construction of the NPP, but no specific details have been published (Tengri News, June 16).
Kazakh sources suggest that Russia has failed to provide necessary funding for three combined heat and power facilities in Kokshetau, Semey, and Oskemen (Ratel.kz, May 6).
Kazakhstan's water resources are forecasted to aggravate further by 2037 (ORDA, February 16, 2024).
The expected price of electricity from the Akkuyu NPP might be several times higher than the price of solar-generated electricity (Radio Azattyq, April 25).

Sources:

The Jamestown Foundation, "Rosatom to Build Kazakhstan's First Nuclear Power Plant (Part One)"
RBC, June 16, 2025
Central Election Commission of the Republic of Kazakhstan, October 7, 2024
Rtvi.com, October 8, 2024
Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for Atomic Energy, June 14
United Nations, August 29, 2023
Masamedia, December 5, 2023
Radio Azattyq, September 18, 2024
ORDA, February 16, 2024
EDM, March 30, 2021
Rosatom, accessed July 11
Greenbelarus.info, December 22, 2021
iSANS, March 7
Tengri News, June 16
Ratel.kz, May 6
Central Media News, July 9