Kerry Takes Lead in Democratic Nomination Race

Strategic Insights -

Senator John Kerry has taken the lead nationally among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters in the race for the Democratic nomination, according to a new Newsweek Poll. With 30 percent support, Kerry is ahead of Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Sen. John Edwards, who trail with 12 percent and 13 percent respectively. The poll also shows that Kerry is the strongest candidate against President George W. Bush, with a 49-46 margin over Bush in a hypothetical match-up. Kerry's popularity extends to a majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners, with 74 percent holding a favorable opinion of him.

Key Takeaways:

  • Senator John Kerry leads the Democratic nomination race with 30 percent support, followed by Sen. John Edwards (13%) and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (12%).
  • Kerry is the strongest candidate against President George W. Bush, with a 49-46 margin over Bush in a hypothetical match-up.
  • A majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners (74%) have a favorable opinion of Kerry.
  • Kerry also leads among registered voters as the candidate who would have a better chance of beating President Bush if the election were held today.
  • Sen. Joe Lieberman trails behind with only 14 percent of Democratic voters saying he has a good chance of beating Bush.
  • Democrats and Democratic leaners think Sen. John Kerry has the best chance (48%) of defeating Bush in November and is the candidate mostly likely to do so (43%).
  • Howard Dean follows with 26 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners thinking he would most likely defeat Bush.
  • Only 15 percent think Dean would most likely defeat Bush.

Statistics:

  • 30% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters support Senator John Kerry in the Democratic nomination race.
  • 13% support Sen. John Edwards.
  • 12% support Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.
  • 12% have a favorable opinion of Gen. Wesley Clark.
  • 54% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Kerry.
  • 46% have an unfavorable opinion of Bush.
  • 42% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Howard Dean, though 57% of Democrats and Democratic leaners have a favorable opinion.
  • 78% of voters believe it is very likely (40%) or somewhat likely (38%) that Bush will be re-elected to a second term in office.

Sources:

  • (Forbes, 2004)
  • Kerry leads in Democratic nomination race, poll finds, by Rosanna Maietta. (Newsweek, January 24, 2004)