Kim Jong Un's Triumphant Return: Analysis of his Historic Visit to China and Russia

Strategic Insights -

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un marked a triumphant return to the world stage this week, as he stood shoulder-to-shoulder with China's leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a landmark military parade. This meeting, the first gathering between leaders from Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang since 1959, was a moment of triumph for Kim, who was once written off as weak and unlikely to survive. Despite being flooded with criticism from Western experts, Kim has cemented his grip on power, continued his nuclear weapons program, and now finds himself feted by the very leaders who once supported US-led efforts to isolate his country.

Key Takeaways:

  • Kim Jong Un's recent visit to China and Russia marked a historic moment not only for his rule but also for the region, according to John Delury, a senior fellow at the Asia Society.
  • The North Korean leader has been fortunate in his diplomatic endeavors, with Russia and China shifting their stance to support Pyongyang after US-China relations deteriorated under Donald Trump's first term.
  • In 2019, Beijing and Moscow supported severe UN sanctions on Pyongyang, but later changed their stance, with Beijing concluding that it needs to support Pyongyang at all costs.
  • Since 2022, North Korea has supplied Russia with millions of shells and thousands of troops, generating billions of dollars for the North Korean regime.
  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 created a sudden demand for outdated munitions that North Korea happened to have in abundance, making Kim's strategic position favorable.
  • Kim's diplomatic skill should not be underestimated, as he resisted pressure from the US and China, building up his nuclear arsenal and wearing the Chinese down until they lost faith in the idea that sanctions could convince Pyongyang to change course.
  • Kim's message to the US is to abandon any attempt to negotiate regarding denuclearization, as he has everything his regime needs, the partners, the money, and the missiles.
  • Kim's appearance with his young daughter Ju Ae, believed to be 12 or 13 years old, was a political gesture to demonstrate her potential as the next leader, echoing Kim's father's attempt to anoint his heir during a trip to China in the early 1980s.
  • The advantages for China of elevating the North Korean leader to near-equal status with Xi appear unclear-cut, with some analysts suggesting that China's intentions may be to exert psychological pressure on the US and Europe.

Statistics:

  • In 2017, UN sanctions on Pyongyang were supported by China and Russia after Kim's sixth nuclear test.
  • By 2019, China and Russia's stance on North Korea shifted, with Beijing concluding that it needs to support Pyongyang at all costs.
  • Since 2022, North Korea has supplied Russia with millions of shells and thousands of troops, generating billions of dollars for the North Korean regime.
  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 created a sudden demand for outdated munitions that North Korea happened to have in abundance.
  • In 2020, Russia did less trade with North Korea than it did with Jamaica.
  • Trump expressed his desire to meet Kim Jong Un again this year, following a series of high-profile but largely inconclusive meetings during his first term.

Sources:

  • Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul.
  • John Delury, a senior fellow at the Asia Society.
  • Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow at South Korea's state-affiliated Institute for National Security Strategy.
  • Sergey Bobylev/AFP.
  • Alexander Kazakov/AFP.