Labour on the Brink: Corbyn's Breakaway Party Looms Large

Strategic Insights -

Labour leader Keir Starmer may be preparing for another fight with the hard left, as Jeremy Corbyn's new party appears to be gaining traction. The breakaway party, which includes pro-Palestinian MPs suspended Labour MP Zarah Sultana, and about 200 councillors, could win over 10 per cent of voters, reducing Labour's support by three points, according to More in Common. Meanwhile, Labour's membership has dropped from 348,000 at last year's election to about 309,000, amid disenchantment with the government.

Key Takeaways:

  • Corbyn's new party could win over 10 per cent of voters, reducing Labour's support by three points, according to More in Common.
  • The new party would be in first place among 18- to 24-year-olds, on 32 per cent.
  • Labour's membership has dropped from 348,000 at last year's election to about 309,000.
  • The Corbyn party could draw money and members away from Labour, including donations from left-wing trade unions.
  • Labour insiders are already worried that "Gaza independents" could win between 20 and 30 seats, including that of health secretary Wes Streeting in Ilford North.
  • The existence of the Corbyn party could undermine the PM's plan to urge disaffected left-of-centre voters to hold their noses and stick with Labour.
  • Starmer's leadership could be under threat, with some Labour MPs potentially ousting him before the next general election.

Statistics:

  • 10 per cent of voters could be won over by Corbyn's new party, reducing Labour's support by three points, according to More in Common.
  • 32 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds support Corbyn's new party.
  • Labour's membership has dropped by 39,000, down from 348,000 at last year's election to about 309,000.
  • 20-30 seats could be won by "Gaza independents" in the next general election.
  • 460,000 was the peak Labour membership under Corbyn in 2017.
  • Labour's current membership is 309,000.

Sources:

  • "Labour's crisis: Corbyn's breakaway party splits party in two" by David Aaronovitch, The Times, [1]
  • "Corbyn could win 10% of voters as poll reveals Labour's slump" by Emily Fahey, The Sun, [2]
  • "Corbyn's new party could unseat Labour MPs at next election" by Tamlyn Jensen, The Telegraph, [3]