Labour Split: Jeremy Corbyn's New Party Threatens to Erode Starmer's Support

Strategic Insights -

The launch of Jeremy Corbyn's new political party has caused a stir in the UK, with the former Labour leader teaming up with Zarah Sultana to create a radical left-wing alternative to the Labour Party. The new party, which will be given a permanent name by its members, has already garnered the support of four pro-Gaza MPs and is seen as a threat to Labour's hold on its disaffected base. As the party appeals to those who feel betrayed by Labour's centrist shift, it may also split the left, potentially handing a significant advantage to Reform UK.

Key Takeaways:

  • Jeremy Corbyn's new party has already secured the support of four pro-Gaza MPs, the "Independent Alliance", who will contribute to its founding process.
  • The party's radical left-wing economic agenda and strident support for Palestine have the potential to be hugely potent and may appeal to Labour's disaffected base.
  • Labour strategists believe the new party could cost them seats previously vulnerable to pro-Gaza independents, given that four such MPs have announced their support for Corbyn and Sultana's party.
  • A poll by More In Common last month put a hypothetical Corbyn-led party at 10% support, with most voters drawn from Labour and the Greens.
  • Zarah Sultana's prominent position in the new party has been seen as a way to place herself as a future torch-bearer of the left, with sources telling The Times that she was partly involved in the new party "for her own ends".
  • Sultana has explored standing against Shabana Mahmood in Birmingham, having come less than 3,500 votes from losing to a pro-Gaza independent in the last election.
  • Labour MPs are worried about the potential threat posed by Corbyn's new party, with one stating that the party's formation "gutcalled the fear of vote loss next time".

Statistics:

  • 80,000 people are said to have signed up to support the party within a few hours of its launch.
  • 4 pro-Gaza MPs have announced their support for Corbyn's new party, joining the "Independent Alliance".
  • 10% support for a hypothetical Corbyn-led party in a poll by More In Common last month.
  • 3,500 votes was the margin between Sultana and the pro-Gaza independent in the last election.
  • 15,000 votes above the Labour majority in one constituency.
  • 2024: The year Labour learned that there are no safe seats.

Sources:

  • "Your Party" - Temporary name of Corbyn's new party until members choose a permanent title at a conference expected in the autumn.
  • More In Common - Polling organisation that put a hypothetical Corbyn-led party at 10% support.
  • The Times - News organisation that reported on Sultana's involvement in the new party and her potential candidacy in Birmingham.
  • Labour Party - Organisation that has seen its hold on its disaffected base threatened by Corbyn's new party.
  • Reform UK - Party that sees Corbyn's new party as a threat to its own prospects and a potential source of advantage.
  • Socialist Campaign Group caucus - Labour MPs who have felt emboldened by Labour's climbdowns on cuts to welfare and the winter fuel allowance.