Labour's Leadership Crisis Deepens as Turnouts Plunge in Deputy Leadership and Caerphilly Elections

Strategic Insights -

Labour leader Keir Starmer is facing a growing crisis as low turnouts in the party's deputy leadership election and a byelection in Caerphilly highlight a deepening sense of disillusionment among party members. Thursday's Caerphilly byelection saw a record low turnout of 17% as Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle won with 50.43% of the vote, while the Labour candidate trailed at 11%. The election is seen as a canary in the coalmine for the party's prospects in next year's local elections.

Key Takeaways:

  • Lucy Powell won the Labour deputy leadership election with 54% of the vote, beating Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson.
  • The low turnout of 17% in the Caerphilly byelection is a stark contrast to the 59% turnout when Angela Rayner was elected as deputy leader five years earlier.
  • The result is seen as a damning indictment of the direction of travel under Keir Starmer, with one junior minister saying it is "apocalyptic" and threatening to lead to the "pasokification" of the Labour party.
  • Powell's election is already causing friction within the party, with one backbencher warning that she will not be constrained by collective responsibility and may be a threat to Starmer's leadership.
  • The result of the Caerphilly byelection has raised concerns about Labour's prospects in the local elections next May, with the party trailing at 11% of the vote.
  • The rise of tactical voting and the possibility of a progressive alliance could save Labour's time in government, but this scenario is seen as unpalatable by many voters.

Statistics:

  • 54%: The percentage of the vote won by Lucy Powell in the Labour deputy leadership election.
  • 17%: The turnout in the Caerphilly byelection, the lowest on record.
  • 50.43%: The percentage of the vote won by Plaid Cymru's Lindsay Whittle in the Caerphilly byelection.
  • 59%: The turnout when Angela Rayner was elected as deputy leader five years earlier.
  • 11%: The percentage of the vote won by Labour in the Caerphilly byelection.
  • 250: The number of constituencies that would need to vote tactically for Labour to win.

Sources:

  • The Observer
  • Public First and Stonehaven poll published by The Observer last month