Land Use Change and Climate Extremes Disrupt Environmental Flows in Ethiopia

Strategic Insights -

Researchers at Addis Ababa University have conducted a four-decade study on the impacts of land use and land cover change on environmental parameters and hydrological dynamics in the Muger River watershed, Ethiopia. The research used cloud-based remote sensing platforms and found substantial forest and grassland loss, alongside expansion of cultivated land and settlements. These changes contributed to increased soil heat flux, mean land surface temperature, and soil erosion, while soil moisture and soil organic carbon declined.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found a significant loss of forest and grassland cover, with -1,176 km2 and -724.28 km2 lost respectively, while cultivated land and settlements expanded by +1,646.80 km2 and +878.00 km2 respectively.
  • The changes contributed to increased soil heat flux (+4.07 W/m2), mean land surface temperature (+5.6 °C), and soil erosion (+11.54 tons/ha), while soil moisture (-0.362 m3/ha) and soil organic carbon (-385.1 tons/ha) declined.
  • The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index fell by 0.795, and water balance decreased by 36.98%, indicating a disruption to environmental flows.
  • The study highlighted the importance of cloud-based remote sensing platforms in monitoring watershed changes and underscored the growing vulnerability of environmental flows to land use and climate change.
  • The research emphasizes the urgent need for adaptive land and water management strategies to mitigate future water scarcity risks under increasing environmental stress.

Statistics:

  • -1,176 km2 of forest cover lost
  • -724.28 km2 of grassland cover lost
  • +1,646.80 km2 of cultivated land expanded
  • +878.00 km2 of settlements expanded
  • +4.07 W/m2 increase in soil heat flux
  • +5.6 °C increase in mean land surface temperature
  • +11.54 tons/ha increase in soil erosion
  • -0.362 m3/ha decrease in soil moisture
  • -385.1 tons/ha decrease in soil organic carbon
  • 0.795 decrease in standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index
  • 36.98% decrease in water balance

Sources:

  • Exploring the nexus between land use change, climate factors, and environmental flows (e-flows) for long-term water security in the Muger River watershed, Ethiopia. Discover Environment, 2025, 3(1):1-28.
  • https://doi-org.sdpl.idm.oclc.org/10.1007/s44274-025-00309-4 (free version available)
  • Gizaw Abera Gebreegziabher, Center for Environmental Science, Addis Ababa University (contact for additional information)
  • Sileshi Degefa, Wakgari Furi (additional authors)
  • NewsRx. Research from Addis Ababa University in the Area of Cybersecurity Published [Exploring the nexus between land use change, climate factors, and environmental flows (e-flows) for long-term water security in the Muger River watershed, Ethiopia]. Journal of Engineering. October 20, 2025; p 3078.