Lessons from Buffalo's 2021 Mayoral Election for Zohran Mamdani's New York City Campaign

Strategic Insights -

The 2021 mayoral election in Buffalo, where Democratic Party leaders were split on embracing a democratic socialist candidate, offers valuable lessons for Zohran Mamdani's upcoming campaign in New York City. Despite being a longshot, India Walton won the Democratic primary by a narrow margin, only to lose to incumbent Mayor Byron Brown in the general election. This closely follows a similar narrative in New York City, where Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani shocked the establishment by defeating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary. Cuomo is now mounting a bid to run as an independent in November's general election. People involved in the Buffalo election said the 2021 contest offers relevant insights for Mamdani and the candidates trying to stop him.

Key Takeaways:

  • Lesson 1: Campaigning beyond the traditional base is crucial. Walton, a democratic socialist, was able to excite progressives, including residents of gentrifying neighborhoods on Buffalo's West Side. She promised stronger tenant protections and more equitable distribution of city resources.
  • Lesson 2: Expect a backlash from wealthy businesspeople and developers. In Buffalo, former GOP gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino and other real estate developers contributed to Brown's campaign, flooding Walton's campaign with attacks, including scrutiny of her record.
  • Lesson 3: Expand your base to win. Brown leaned on municipal unions and campaigned in Black churches to turn out his traditional base of support. Walton struggled to bring in moderate voters due to attack ads and lack of planning.
  • Lesson 4: Winning head-to-head is easier when a single opponent is on the ballot. Brown, facing no major-party opponent, was able to wage a write-in campaign, educating his voters on how to properly write his name on the ballot.
  • Lesson 5: Understand the city's priorities and needs. Buffalo, unlike New York City, has a conservative demographic that can be progressive in its politics but not that progressive. Mamdani should focus on connecting with the city's diverse population and addressing specific concerns.

Statistics:

  • The turnout in Buffalo's mayoral election was a relatively low 21%. Walton won by roughly 1,000 votes.
  • New York City's primary saw a turnout of 32% of Democrats, a level not seen for 35 years.
  • The greater resources for Brown's campaign fueled a deluge of attacks against Walton, including scrutiny of her record.
  • Walton's campaign team said they were unprepared for the attacks, which added to her campaign's demise.

Sources:

  • "Buffalo Is on the Verge of Electing a Socialist Mayor" by James Fanelli (https://www.wsj.com/us-news/gentrifying-buffalo-is-on-the-verge-of-electing-a-socialist-mayor-11634830232?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAiXXujEBcSR1W1xFvrcXgha8rqq814nGei0FCRLBijPotstUd0TSasFrvdJGw%3D%3D&gaa_ts=688107be&gaa_sig=LBjHiERLLmdUIYtYuURPkPdyf6PSJcfqIemg_XN-AQnFf-wqKzl3kgoVnlBw77kE9Gc9lrMpqdziF9WjrNkcDQ%3D%3D)
  • "Andrew Cuomo Relaunches Campaign for Mayor After Losing Primary to Zohran Mamdani" (https://gothamist.com/news/andrew-cuomo-relaunches-campaign-for-mayor-after-losing-primary-to-zohran-mamdani)
  • Interview with Bob McCarthy, a political analyst for WKBW (https://buffalonews.com/news/local/government-and-politics/article_90b95f2c-d427-11eb-8bd5-4bb57250c662.html)