Macron's State Visit to the UK: A Tense Welcome for Small Boat Migrants

Strategic Insights -

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is banking on Emmanuel Macron's state visit to bear fruit, particularly in resolving the issue of small boat migrants. However, the French President's reluctance to adopt the proposed "one in, one out" deal, which has been shown to be the most effective way to stop the crossings, is a major obstacle. The visit is also expected to highlight areas of agreement on security, trade, and the Ukraine crisis.

President Macron's speech to a joint sitting of the Houses of Parliament was full of warm words and a desire to unpick Brexit. He urged the UK and France to shoulder the defence of the European continent and offered a vision of Britain and France working together on security. However, the absence of any concrete proposals on small boat migrants was noticeable. Macron mentioned "the closest ever cooperation" in stopping the crossings, but failed to commit to the UK's proposed deal.

The UK government has been frustrated with the perceived lack of action by the French authorities, who have been funded with £500m of British taxpayer cash. There is a sense of déjà vu, as former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also failed to secure a deal with Macron on the issue. His resistance is partly due to domestic politics and partly because migration control is an EU matter, with other member states objecting.

The visit is also expected to highlight areas of disagreement, including the UK's bid to join the EU defence procurement fund and the French opposition to British businesses. Macron's priorities have shifted over time, with the defence of Europe now ranking above fish in French priorities.

Starmer has proven himself to be an adept and able diplomat, winning respect from Macron and other world leaders. However, the French leader's reluctance to help on the small boat issue may leave him feeling frustrated.

Key Takeaways:

  • Macron's state visit highlights the fundamental disagreement between the UK and France on the issue of small boat migrants. While Macron mentioned "the closest ever cooperation" in stopping the crossings, he failed to commit to the UK's proposed "one in, one out" deal.
  • The French President's reluctance to adopt the proposed deal is due to domestic politics and his opposition to the UK's bid to join the EU defence procurement fund.
  • The UK government has been frustrated with the perceived lack of action by the French authorities, who have been funded with £500m of British taxpayer cash.
  • Former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also failed to secure a deal with Macron on the issue, due to domestic politics and the complexity of migration control as an EU matter.
  • Starmer has won respect from Macron and other world leaders, but may be left feeling frustrated by the French leader's reluctance to help on the small boat issue.
  • The visit is also expected to highlight areas of agreement on security, trade, and the Ukraine crisis.
  • Macron's priorities have shifted over time, with the defence of Europe now ranking above fish in French priorities.

Statistics:

  • £500m: The amount of British taxpayer cash allocated to the French authorities to help with the issue of small boat migrants.
  • 30 minutes: The length of time President Macron spoke in his second language at the joint sitting of the Houses of Parliament.
  • 2025: The year when Macron may face renewed pressure from the UK to help with the small boat issue.
  • One in, one out deal: The proposed deal that has been shown to be the most effective way to stop small boat migrants.

Sources:

  • "Macron state visit live: France denies that Macron blames Starmer for migrant crisis." [BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65044601)
  • "Starmer and Macron to meet at No 10 amid push for French help on small boats." [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/25/starmer-and-macron-to-meet-at-no-10-amid-push-for-french-help-on-small-boats)