Mexico's Economy Stagnates, Experiencing Second Contraction of the Year

Strategic Insights -

Mexico's economy, expected to grow by 0.1% annually in July, experienced a month-over-month decline of 0.1%, according to preliminary data from the national statistics agency INEGI. This marks the second contraction of the year, following a 0.2% decrease in March. The industrial sector, a key contributor to the economy, experienced a monthly contraction of 0.1% and an annual decline of 1%, according to INEGI estimates.

Key Takeaways:

  • Mexico's economy is experiencing its second contraction of the year, with a month-over-month decline of 0.1% in July.
  • The industrial sector, a secondary economic activity, declined by 0.1% monthly and 1% annually, according to INEGI estimates.
  • Mexico's Finance Ministry maintains its existing growth estimate range of 1.5% to 2.3% for the 2026 Economic Package, despite the economic stagnation.
  • Independent economic growth estimates vary, with the OECD predicting a GDP growth of 0.4% for Mexico in 2025 and Citi forecasting 0.3% growth.
  • The postponement of US tariffs on Mexican goods contributed to a slight upward revision in the growth outlook, from 0.1% to 0.4%, according to the national president of the IMEF.

Statistics:

  • 0.1%: Mexico's economy is expected to grow annually in July.
  • 0.1%: Month-over-month decline in the economy in July.
  • 0.2%: Decrease in the economy in March.
  • 0.1%: Monthly contraction in the industrial sector.
  • 1%: Annual decline in the industrial sector, according to INEGI estimates.
  • 1.5%-2.3%: Mexico's Finance Ministry maintains its existing growth estimate range for the 2026 Economic Package.
  • 0.4%: OECD's prediction of GDP growth for Mexico in 2025.
  • 0.3%: Citi's forecast of GDP growth for Mexico in 2025.
  • 0.1%: Revision in the growth outlook, from 0.1% to 0.4%, according to the national president of the IMEF.

Sources:

  • INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía) - Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE)
  • Mexico News Daily - "A cloudy economic forecast? Mexico shows 0% monthly growth in June"
  • Monex - analysis on Mexican economy
  • OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) - GDP growth forecast for Mexico in 2025
  • Citi - GDP growth forecast for Mexico in 2025
  • El Economista - conference call with the national president of the IMEF, Gabriela Gutiérrez
  • Debat - article on Mexico's economy
  • Mexico News Daily - "Economic growth hovers near zero for 5th consecutive month"