Middle East Peace Process on Brink of Collapse

Strategic Insights -

The rapid deterioration of the Middle East peace process has led to a situation where peace between Israel and the Palestinians seems increasingly unattainable. The two sides are unable to agree on the status of Jerusalem, with neither party willing to compromise, and the international community is powerless to intervene. The US, in particular, is facing a difficult position, with presidential elections just weeks away and no clear commitment to the peace process. As a result, the situation is ideal for rogue states like Iraq to reassert themselves, with President Saddam Hussein redoubling his efforts to paint himself as the savior of the Palestinians.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Middle East peace process is on the brink of collapse due to the inability of Israel and the Palestinians to agree on the status of Jerusalem.
  • The US is facing a difficult position, with presidential elections just weeks away and no clear commitment to the peace process.
  • President Saddam Hussein of Iraq is taking advantage of the situation to weaken the sanctions regime and present himself as the savior of the Palestinians.
  • The latest upsurge of violence has created a poisonous atmosphere between the key players, with Israeli Premier Ehud Barak and Palestinian President Yasser Arafat trading charges and blaming each other.
  • The US credibility has been severely damaged on both sides, with the administration being blasted by both Israel and the Arab World for not assigning blame to Arafat for the violence.
  • Arab commentators have noted that Arafat was blamed by Clinton for not compromising enough at the Camp David talks, while Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said in a recent interview that the problem is that "the Palestinians, in many ways, are putting the Israelis under siege" by stone-throwing and violence.
  • Demonstrations across the Arab World are reminiscent of what happened during the Gulf crisis of 1990-91, with public opinion in the region united on not compromising on Jerusalem.

Statistics:

  • At least 100 lives have been claimed over the past two weeks due to the latest upsurge of violence in Israel and the Palestinian territories.
  • The Israeli military has imposed tough security measures in the West Bank and Gaza, including annexation of territories in the West Bank.
  • The Palestinian Authority has a declaration of statehood pending, having already postponed it from September 13.
  • The Arab response to the crisis has been relatively mild, with widespread condemnation of Israel and no belligerent rhetoric – except from Saddam Hussein.

Sources:

  • News Service No. 15
  • The Washington Post, October 12
  • NBC's "Meet the Press" program