Minsk Summit Hopes for Peace Deal in Ukraine Amid Criticism of Russian Support

Strategic Insights -

Leaders from France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia are set to meet in Minsk this week in a fresh bid to reach a peace deal over the Ukrainian conflict. However, Vladimir Putin has conditioned the meeting on certain issues being resolved first. The planned summit follows an intense period of top-level diplomacy, including a surprise visit to the Kremlin by the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, Francois Hollande. The meeting aims to achieve a comprehensive settlement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, with western diplomats playing down expectations.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Minsk summit is conditional on resolving certain issues, which Putin did not specify, and is expected to take place on Wednesday evening in Belarus.
  • Ukraine and its western supporters are insisting that separatist forces pull back to the ceasefire lines agreed in September and establish a demilitarized zone along the frontline.
  • Russia wants a ceasefire agreement that recognizes the territorial gains won by the separatists since the last Minsk deal.
  • The US and German leaders are to hold talks in Washington, with pressure building for a tougher approach to the crisis.
  • A previous ceasefire agreement was largely ignored, and Moscow-backed separatists have made significant territorial gains, resulting in over 5,300 lives lost and a million people displaced.
  • Monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have reported a constant supply of new weapons and ammunition to the separatists, with the origin of these supplies unclear.
  • Germany and the UK oppose arming the Ukrainian army, warning of an uncontrolled escalation of the conflict, while eastern European nations and prominent US senators support providing weapons to Kiev.
  • The US has not yet made a decision on supplying weapons to Ukraine, with the secretary of state, John Kerry, stating that the differences between western allies are "tactical, not strategic."
  • Preliminary estimates suggest that around 1 million people have been displaced due to the conflict, and over 5,300 lives have been lost.

Statistics:

  • 1 million people displaced due to the conflict (estimated)
  • 5,300 lives lost due to the conflict (estimated)
  • 250-mile section of border outside the control of the Kiev government where separatists are denying access to OSCE monitors
  • 4 countries involved in the Minsk summit: France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia

Sources:

  • The Guardian
  • Reuters
  • BBC News