Narrowing Differences in Kosovo Peace Settlement

Strategic Insights -

Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari and Russian envoy Victor Chernomyrdin will hold direct negotiations with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic in Belgrade today, marking a significant step towards a peace settlement in Kosovo. After Yugoslavia rejected two main Nato conditions, Ahtisaari stated that "clarity has to be sought from the Yugoslav end." The talks will focus on clarifying existing proposals and negotiating on peacekeeping troops and troop levels, with analysts noting that there is still room for negotiation.

Key Takeaways:

  • Nato's conditions for ending the 10-week air campaign remain unchanged, with a total withdrawal of Yugoslav forces from Kosovo and a credible peacekeeping army including troops from main Nato powers.
  • Yugoslavia rejected two main Nato conditions: keeping forces in Kosovo at peace-time levels and refusing peacekeeping troops from Nato states involved in the air offensive.
  • Moscow's peace plan, which incorporates the G8 principles, falls short of Nato's tougher conditions but has been accepted by Slobodan Milosevic.
  • Analysts believe that there is still room for negotiation over the composition of a UN-approved peacekeeping force and Yugoslav troop levels.
  • A source close to the government stated that Milosevic will avoid giving public acceptance of Nato's terms to avoid being seen as surrendering by the Serbian people.
  • The Russian draft plan proposes a UN peacekeeping force led by a commander from a neutral country, with Russian and neutral country peacekeepers patrolling most of Kosovo.

Statistics:

  • 10 weeks: duration of the Nato air campaign
  • 2 main Nato conditions rejected by Yugoslavia: keeping forces in Kosovo at peace-time levels and refusing peacekeeping troops from Nato states involved in the air offensive.
  • 100%: the total withdrawal of Yugoslav forces from Kosovo demanded by Nato.
  • 80-90%: the agreed proportion of the territories of Kosovo that will be free of Yugoslav forces.

Sources:

  • Financial Times Limited, 1999.