Nato Leaders Set to Sign Up to 3.5% Defence Spending Target Amid Russia Threat

Strategic Insights -

The Nato summit in The Hague is set to begin with a dinner hosted by the Dutch king, Willem-Alexander, on Tuesday evening, followed by a single working meeting on Wednesday morning. The meeting is expected to be a self-congratulatory mood for US President Donald Trump, who is likely to arrive after his declaration of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. However, concerns about US support for Ukraine remain, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy invited to the dinner but not to the working meeting with Nato leaders.

Key Takeaways:

  • Nato leaders are set to sign up to a target to raise core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, with most allies expected to meet the target, except for Spain which has committed to 2.1%.
  • The 3.5% figure represents a substantial commitment for most countries, including France, Germany, and the UK, with the additional percentage point amounting to around £30bn in new money for defence.
  • The decision to set a deadline of 2035 is a compromise between the original target date of 2032 proposed by Dutch former prime minister Mark Rutte and the concerns of some allies.
  • The new spending target does not include exemptions or opt-outs, and it remains to be seen if Spain will match the pledge.
  • The absence of US military support for Ukraine is a significant concern, with Jamie Shea, a former Nato spokesperson, warning that support for Kyiv will likely gravitate towards other European frameworks.
  • The secretary general, Mark Rutte, insists that the threat from Russia is real and that Nato leaders understand the need to defend themselves against the threat, citing Russia's production of four times as much ammunition as the whole of Nato.

Statistics:

  • Number of countries expected to meet the 3.5% defence spending target: most countries, except for Spain.
  • Amount of new money for defence: around £30bn.
  • Target date for defence spending to reach 3.5% of GDP: 2035.
  • Threat level posed by Russia: "deserting" according to the secretary general, with the potential to mount a successful attack on Nato between 2028 and 2030.

Sources:

  • The Guardian
  • Guardian 1
  • Reuters
  • Politis
  • Nato