NBA Draft Lottery: A History of Fortune and Misfortune

Strategic Insights -

The NBA draft lottery, once a mysterious process that seeded the league's hopefuls with table tennis balls, has evolved into an annual event that determines the fate of franchises. The lottery's unpredictability has led to some remarkable wins, while others have been left grasping at the short end of the stick. As the 2023 draft approaches, we look back at the lottery's history, highlighting the most successful franchises, long-shot winners, and teams that have never tasted the thrill of the top pick.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic hold the record for the most lottery wins with four each.
  • The Los Angeles Clippers, Philadelphia, and San Antonio have received the top pick three times.
  • Eight franchises have never won the lottery: the Grizzlies, Heat, Jazz, Lakers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Pacers, and Thunder.
  • The longest long shots to win the lottery had a probability of 1.5%: Orlando in 1993, 1.7%: Chicago in 2008, and Cleveland in 2014.
  • This year, Utah, Washington, Charlotte, and New Orleans have a league-best 14% chance of picking first, while the Sacramento Kings have a record-low 0.8% chance.
  • The Golden State Warriors hold the record for the largest drop in the lottery, falling to the seventh pick in 1985.

Statistics:

  • The NBA has held 39 draft lotteries since its inception in 1985.
  • The record for the most lottery wins is tied by Cleveland and Orlando with four wins each.
  • The longest long-shot winners had a probability of 1.5% (Orlando in 1993), 1.7% (Chicago in 2008), and 1.7% (Cleveland in 2014).
  • This year's top five teams in the lottery have a combined chance of 48%.
  • The Golden State Warriors have the lowest chance of falling to the top pick at 0%.

Sources:

  • The Associated Press - reviewed each franchise's draft lottery history.
  • Monumental Sports Network - interviewed Wizards general manager Will Dawkins on the lottery process.
  • The 1985 NBA draft - the first draft lottery, led by commissioner David Stern.
  • The 2023 NBA draft - the upcoming draft, where teams will look to improve their fortunes.