Net Migration Could Reach 250,000 a Year Despite Labor's Crackdown

Strategic Insights -

Net migration is forecast to fall from 720,000 to about 340,000 by 2028 due to existing measures, according to the Office of National Statistics. However, Professor Brian Bell, the chair of the migration advisory committee, believes that Labor's plans could reduce net migration to "under 300,000 and probably closer to 250,000 in the next few years." This is significantly lower than the average of 200,000 in the 2010s and the pre-Brexit total of 224,000 in 2019.

Key Takeaways:

  • Labor's immigration plan aims to reduce net migration, but Professor Brian Bell estimates it could reach 250,000 a year due to factors like foreign workers and students remaining in the UK.
  • The Prime Minister's white paper proposes reducing foreign workers and students by 98,000 a year, based on Home Office analysis.
  • Net migration could still be above the average of 200,000 in the 2010s and the pre-Brexit total of 224,000 in 2019.
  • Labor has refused to set a cap on net migration, but Professor Bell believes the measures could result in a 60,000 to 70,000 cut to the figure.
  • The white paper introduces tougher rules on immigration, including a six per cent tax on universities' income from foreign students, and requiring foreign students to leave the UK after 18 months.
  • Employers could be barred from hiring foreign workers if they fail to train domestic workers, and migrant workers will only be able to come to the UK for graduate-level jobs.

Statistics:

  • Current net migration: 720,000
  • Forecast net migration by 2028: 340,000
  • Estimated net migration under Labor's plans: 250,000
  • Average annual net migration in the 2010s: 200,000
  • Pre-Brexit total net migration in 2019: 224,000
  • Proposed reduction in foreign workers and students: 98,000 a year
  • Estimated reduction in net migration under Labor's plans: 60,000-70,000

Sources:

  • Professor Brian Bell, chairman of the migration advisory committee
  • Office of National Statistics
  • Home Office
  • Prime Minister's white paper
  • Conservative Home Office sources