Netanyahu Gains Ground in Israeli Politics

Strategic Insights -

As negotiations between Labour Party leader Ehud Barak and Likud leader Ariel Sharon continue, recent polls indicate a significant shift in favor of Benyamin Netanyahu as a potential Prime Minister. A Gallup poll published in Maariv shows Netanyahu leading with 47%, while Barak trails behind at 30%, with 7% of respondents undecided. A separate Dahaf Institute poll for Yedioth Ahronoth gives Netanyahu an even more convincing 50% to Barak's 38%, with 12% still undecided.

Key Takeaways:

  • Netanyahu's popularity has surged in recent polls, with a 17-point lead over Barak in the Gallup poll and a 12-point lead in the Dahaf Institute poll.
  • Barak's minority government can muster only 30 seats in the Knesset, making him vulnerable to a no-confidence vote, and his reliance on Sharon to ensure political survival is critical.
  • Sharon's motivations for joining the government are multifaceted, including influencing security issues and pre-empting any move by Netanyahu, as well as wanting to kill the peace process and veto decisions.
  • The Labour Party has expressed concern that a national unity government with Sharon's involvement would signal a departure from their peace platform and perpetuate a siege mentality in Israel.
  • Justice Minister Yossi Beilin invoked the memory of slain PM Yitzhak Rabin in opposition to the union, highlighting the party's tension over Sharon's inclusion.
  • Leah Rabin, Yitzhak's widow, has expressed disappointment in Barak's leadership and views Arafat as a true partner, further complicating the peace process.

Statistics:

  • Gallup poll: Netanyahu 47%, Barak 30%, 7% undecided
  • Dahaf Institute poll: Netanyahu 50%, Barak 38%, 12% undecided
  • Number of seats in the Knesset that Barak's minority government can muster: 30
  • Turnout in the Labour Party meeting where Barak sought to persuade his allies on the national unity government: reportedly stormy
  • Number of people in the Labour Party meeting who opposed the union: including Justice Minister Yossi Beilin

Sources:

  • Gallup poll, published in Maariv
  • Dahaf Institute poll, published in Yedioth Ahronoth
  • Unnamed Labour Party meeting