New Jersey Governor's Race Narrows in Final Weeks

Strategic Insights -

New Jersey's governor's race is in its final weeks before the November 4 election, with congresswoman and Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill holding a five-point lead over former state assemblyman and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll. The poll shows 50% of likely voters would vote for Sherrill, 45% for Ciattarelli, 3% say they would vote for neither or someone else, and 2% are unsure. The five-point lead is within the margin of error, indicating a close and unpredictable election.

Key Takeaways:

  • Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by 5 points among likely voters, with 50% saying they would vote for her and 45% for Ciattarelli, within the margin of error.
  • Partisans are taking their respective sides, with 95% of Democrats saying they would vote for Sherrill and 94% of Republicans saying they would vote for Ciattarelli.
  • Independents are more split, with 49% saying they would vote for Sherrill and 40% for Ciattarelli.
  • There are notable differences in other key demographics, including a sharp gender gap, with women 18 points more likely than men to say they would vote for Sherrill.
  • Sherrill leads by 30 points among nonwhite voters and is a clear favorite among voters 65 years or older.
  • Ciattarelli does better with non-Hispanic white voters and those who have some college education or less.
  • 43% think Sherrill will win and 42% think Ciattarelli will win, with less than 1% saying someone else will win and 15% unsure.
  • President Donald Trump is a "major factor" in 52% of voters' elections, with Democrats and Republicans having vastly different opinions.

Statistics:

  • 50% of likely voters would vote for Sherrill if the election were held today, while 45% would vote for Ciattarelli.
  • 3% of likely voters would vote for neither or someone else, and 2% are unsure.
  • 95% of Democrats would vote for Sherrill, 94% of Republicans would vote for Ciattarelli.
  • 49% of independents would vote for Sherrill, 40% would vote for Ciattarelli.
  • Sherrill leads by 18 points among women, while Ciattarelli is 16 points less likely to win among women.
  • Non-white voters favor Sherrill by 30 points (59% to 29%).
  • Ciattarelli leads by 7 points among non-Hispanic white voters (46% to 53%).
  • Sherrill is a clear favorite among voters 65 years or older (61% to 36%).
  • Ciattarelli is the clear favorite on crime and safety (49% to 35%).
  • 42% of likely voters are favorable toward Sherrill, while 45% are unfavorable.
  • 41% of likely voters are favorable toward Ciattarelli, while 47% are unfavorable.
  • Results are from a statewide poll of 795 likely voters contacted via live calling and texting from October 3 to 17.
  • The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

Sources:

  • "New Jersey Governor's Race Narrowing in Final Weeks, Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Says", Rutgers University
  • "Rutgers-Eagleton Poll", Rutgers University-Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling