Nigeria's Democracy on the Brink: The Threat of Dictatorship Under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Strategic Insights -

In a country where once-hopeful democratic institutions have devolved into a dictatorship, Nigeria's President Bola Ahmed Tinubu stands as the primary obstacle to free and fair elections, as evidenced by his destructive track record of crushing opposition and eroding public trust in the electoral process. With a pattern of silencing dissenting voices and stacking key institutions with pliable allies, President Tinubu's actions have led to a stark conclusion: the 2027 elections are all but rigged in favor of the ruling APC, plunging Nigeria into the worst government in its democratic history. As a compromise, influential statesmen must band together to compel Tinubu to restore democratic integrity, lest a mass revolution assumes unpredictable consequences.

Key Takeaways:

  • President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's first two years in office have unleashed the worst social crisis in recent Nigerian history, with severe consequences for the country's democracy.
  • The President has crushed opposition with various state apparatus, rendering democracy without dynamic opposition essentially a dictatorship and bad leadership.
  • Despite his previous championing of democracy, Tinubu has perpetuated authoritarianism by dismantling institutions designed to prevent electoral manipulation.
  • Tinubu has replaced key persons in public institutions with individuals from his camp, including the Inspector General of Police, the State Security Service (SSS), and the Chairman Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
  • The systematic erosion of checks and balances allows Tinubu to dictate the outcome of the 2027 elections, rendering them devoid of integrity.
  • The removal of opposition strongholds and promotion of APC loyalists guarantee Tinubu's victory, bolting Nigeria towards a one-party state.
  • Critics argue that mass defections from opposition parties to the APC are driven by fear of electoral manipulation, while citizens lose trust in an electoral process driven by dictates rather than democracy.
  • Independent civil entrepreneurs and key leaders in each of the 36 Nigerian states can revive negotiations with Tinubu, compelling him to restore electoral integrity through democratic restructuring of essential institutions.
  • However, such a coalition should prioritize compelling the president to ensure a level playing ground for the elections, equipping it to elect a winner through free and fair procedure.
  • Nigeria's masses should recognize that borrowing and squandering billions of dollars to conduct unnecessary and predetermined elections is not worth the price.

Statistics:

  • President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ranked as one of the world's most corrupt leaders, his first two years in office come at the cost of a severe democratic crisis.
  • Nigeria's democratic institutions have found themselves subservient to President Tinubu, co-employees outweighing the leadership free to challenge the course set by President Tinubu.
  • In a country of nearly 200 million people, nearly all key positions of power, as well as those that control security and public safety, have been overtaken by pliable allies of the President.
  • This advantage provides the advantage of being able to extort, in various forms, some sections of the population to intensify sympathy for the president.

Sources:

  • 'I Pity Tinubu', published in 2018, by the writer, arguing that 'if dynamic opposition is the live-wire of a democracy, it is very fitting then to name Tinubu the saviour of Nigeria's current democratic journey.'
  • Goodluck Jonathan strengthened the democratic institutions with attendant freedoms as President, enabling Tinubu and other opposition leaders to float the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013.
  • Goodluck Jonathan appointed an independent-minded university professor, Attahiru Jega, as the Chairman of Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2011.
  • Former President Olusegun Obasanjo and President Umaru Yar'Adua were both a result of flawed elections; however, unlike Tinubu, Yar'Adua acknowledged the fault and took steps to reform the electoral process for the good of the people.