Norway's Oil Production to Continue Decline Despite Major Discovery

Norway's oil production will decline despite the recent significant oil discovery off its coast, the head of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) said. The discovery, Avaldsnes/Aldous Major South, could hold 1.2 billion to 2.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, potentially becoming the third-largest find on the Norwegian shelf. However, this discovery will only slow the decline, not stop it entirely, as production peaked in 2001 and has been falling since.

Key Takeaways:

• The Avaldsnes/Aldous Major South discovery is expected to hold 1.2 billion to 2.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with the potential to become the third-largest find on the Norwegian shelf.
• The discovery will slow the decline of Norway's oil production, but it will not stop it entirely.
• Norway's oil production has been declining since it peaked in 2001, and the decline is expected to accelerate after 2020.
• The NPD is conducting its own analysis of the size of the discovery and may deliver its results by the end of 2021 or early 2022.
• There is uncertainty surrounding the size of the discovery, with Lundin Petroleum providing a wide range of estimates (1.2 billion to 2.6 billion boe).
• Other area wells have offered contrasting results, highlighting the need for more appraisal wells, mapping of the area, and analysis of the data to reduce uncertainty.

Statistics:

• Norway's oil production peaked in 2001.
• The Statfjord and Ekofisk fields, which kicked off Norway's oil era in the 1970s, have more than 3 billion barrels each.
• The Avaldsnes/Aldous Major South discovery may hold 1.2 billion to 2.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
• The decline in Norway's oil production is expected to accelerate after 2020.
• The NPD is conducting its analysis of the discovery, with results expected by the end of 2021 or early 2022.

Sources:

• Lundin Petroleum
• Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD)
• Bloomberg
• Reuters