Nuclear Arms Tests in India and Pakistan: A Path to Global Instability

Strategic Insights -

The world is holding its breath as India and Pakistan consider a series of nuclear arms tests, a move that could bring a new generation of nuclear weapons to South Asia. The Clinton administration is working to dissuade Pakistan from detonating a nuclear device, but the country's refusal to give assurances has raised concerns about the stability of the region. Arms analysts warn that testing in India and Pakistan could put usable nuclear weapons in inexperienced hands, forcing China to choose between improving its arsenal and risking international condemnation.

Key Takeaways:

  • India has gathered enough information from its recent tests to conclude that its nuclear designs work, with the tests confirming that India's designs would yield 15-kiloton nuclear explosions, probably using plutonium.
  • Pakistan is likely to see if a Chinese design imported in 1966 would work atop its two longest-range missiles, with experts believing the country's 36-year-old nuclear arms program would probably detonate a simple fusion weapon, using highly enriched uranium and yielding a 10- to 15-kiloton explosion.
  • Pakistan's military is stretched thin, with 20 percent of its land forces tied up battling a rebellion in Kashmir, but the country has managed to divert some of its defense spending to delivery systems for nuclear weapons.
  • India is believed to be developing sea-launched ballistic missiles and has developed the ground-based missile Agni, which is capable of lobbing a warhead 1,550 miles into Pakistan and into the peripheries of China.
  • The rivalry between India and Pakistan is not new, with the two countries having gone to war three times in the last half-century, but the introduction of nuclear weapons would introduce a new measure of instability to South Asia.
  • Neither India nor Pakistan has developed a clear chain of command in its military to control its nuclear weapons, unlike the five declared nuclear powers, which have relatively clear rules for the use of their nuclear weapons.
  • China has pledged not to test nuclear weapons since 1996, but experts believe the country's military may choose to help Pakistan in its drive to perfect nuclear weapons due to their long-standing alliance.

Statistics:

  • India has $8 billion in defense spending.
  • India's military is larger than Pakistan's, with 20 percent of its land forces tied up battling a rebellion in Kashmir.
  • Pakistan has the Ghauri missile, capable of flying 900 miles and believed to be compatible with the M-11 warhead design China gave Pakistan 32 years ago.
  • India could produce 80 to 100 nuclear weapons, mostly out of plutonium, while Pakistan could produce 24 to 40 nuclear weapons, most likely using highly enriched uranium.
  • The last time any country tested a nuclear weapon was July 1996, when China detonated a device at its Lop Nor site.
  • China has 80 intermediate-range missiles, 20 intercontinental missiles, 180 nuclear bombers, and a nuclear submarine.

Sources:

  • "The Clinton administration hopes it can prevent Pakistan from detonating a nuclear device, but Pakistan so far has refused to give such assurances." (Source: The Washington Post)
  • "Pakistan officials will listen to what the Americans have to say, but we will take very measured deliberations and reach very deliberate conclusions after extensive consultations with the international community." (Source: Ahmad Kamal, Pakistani ambassador to the United Nations)
  • "We think that it (a test) would contribute to the further destabilization of the region and could harm Pakistan's own security." (Source: James Steinberg, Deputy National Security Adviser)
  • "What they want is a deterrent to hold Indian cities hostage." (Source: Andrew Koch, senior researcher at the Center for Defense Information)
  • "I could guess who's coming out of the woodwork now." (Source: Retired Navy Rear Adm. Eric McVadon)