Oman's Economy Remains Dependent on Hydrocarbons

Strategic Insights -

Oman's non-oil exports declined for the second consecutive year, underscoring the country's continued reliance on hydrocarbons. The report by Enjaz Consultancy reveals that crude oil still accounts for 45% of total exports, while refined oil exports doubled to 17% of export volume. The Duqm refinery has been a significant contributor to the increase in refined oil exports. However, the country's non-oil sectors have struggled, with a sharp downturn in exports leading to a trade deficit despite oil price gains.

Key Takeaways:

  • Oman's non-oil exports declined by 16.3% in 2024, following a 1.1% decline in 2023.
  • Crude oil accounts for 45% of total exports, while refined oil exports doubled to 17% of export volume.
  • The Duqm refinery has been a significant contributor to the increase in refined oil exports.
  • Oman's trade deficit (excluding oil and gas) has remained consistent over the past decade.
  • The report calls for intensified export diversification to address structural imbalances.
  • Analysts say Duqm's refining and logistics capacity could anchor future non-oil growth if matched by industrial policy and foreign investment.
  • Non-oil exports now account for just 28% of total export value, highlighting a key vulnerability as the country implements Vision 2040 economic reforms.

Statistics:

  • 16.3% decline in non-oil exports in 2024
  • 45% of total exports accounted for by crude oil in 2024
  • 17% of export volume accounted for by refined oil exports in 2024
  • 1.1% decline in non-oil exports in 2023
  • 12% rise in overall imports in 2024
  • 10%+ rise in exports and imports with the UAE in 2024
  • $4 billion+ (RO 4 billion) imports from the UAE in 2024
  • 19% and 30% decline in exports and imports with Saudi Arabia in 2024, respectively

Sources:

  • "May 2025 edition of Enjaz's Economic Analysis Series"
  • Dr Mahmood al Balushi, author of "May 2025 edition of Enjaz's Economic Analysis Series"