Ontario's Pro-Line Lottery: A Crucial Dilemma for the Province

Strategic Insights -

As the National Basketball Association (NBA) seeks to have basketball games removed from Ontario's Pro-Line sports lottery, the Ontario government must decide whether to comply or stand firm in its negotiations. With the lottery contributing significantly to the province's coffers, particularly during a time of economic austerity, the government should prioritize its interests and challenge the NBA. Research on lottery expenditures has shown that adults in their middle years (mid-30s to mid-50s), particularly baby boomers, are the primary lottery players, and Ontario's population demographics suggest a significant growth in lottery sales in the coming years.

Key Takeaways:

  • In its first six months of operation, the Pro-Line lottery has generated over $20-million in sales, with most of the revenue going to the province as the sole shareholder of the Ontario Lottery Corporation.
  • The introduction of professional basketball to Toronto is expected to increase interest in and sales of Pro-Line tickets, making Ontario's dilemma particularly acute.
  • Research on lottery expenditures has shown that adults play lotteries more in their middle years, and that men play lotteries slightly more than women.
  • The massive baby-boom generation, currently between 28 and 47 years old, is entering their prime lottery-playing years, which is expected to contribute significantly to lottery sales.
  • Ontario's population is expected to grow, potentially becoming the fifth largest market in North America after California, New York, Texas, and Florida.
  • The NBA needs to expand, particularly in the rapidly growing Ontario market, to compensate for the aging population in both Canada and the United States.
  • Ontario has considerable bargaining power in its talks with the NBA, given its significant contribution to the growth of the North American market.

Statistics:

  • Pro-Line lottery sales in its first six months of operation: over $20-million (footnote: equivalent toapproximately $30-million per year)
  • Population of the province of Ontario in the 1980s: grew faster than the three states ahead of it (Ohio, Illinois, and Pennsylvania)
  • Projected population of Ontario in the next decade or two: potentially becoming the fifth largest market in North America
  • Percentage of male lottery players: slightly higher than female players
  • Average age of lottery players: mid-30s to mid-50s

Sources:

  • David K. Foot, "The Fallacies of Lottery Revenue," Journal of Postgraduate Medicine, 1992
  • Peter Drummond, "Demographic Disparities: A Canadian Perspective," Canadian Policy Research Papers, 1987
  • "Sport Factfile", Toronto Blue Jays organization, 1992