Pakistan's Nuclear Dilemma: A Moment of Truth in the Face of International Pressure

Strategic Insights -

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is at a crossroads, under intense international pressure to decide whether to match India's nuclear tests or avoid them, risking a backlash from the growing Islamic right. The country's highly indebted and aid-dependent economy would be severely hit by economic sanctions if it chooses to match India's nuclear tests. However, if it does not hold tests, the government will face a backlash from the Islamic right, which believes India threatened Pakistan's existence. Sharif has stated that Pakistan is in "no haste" to test a nuclear device, citing the country's responsible nature and capability to respond if necessary.

Key Takeaways:

  • Pakistan is widely believed to have a nuclear-test site ready in the Baluchistan desert, but is waiting for international support and sanctions against India.
  • Pakistan's Muslim leaders have taken to the streets, demanding a tough response to India's nuclear tests, with some issuing fatwas stating it is Pakistan's Koranic duty to prepare for nuclear conflict.
  • Pakistan's foreign minister, Gohar Ayub Khan, claims that Pakistan's systems and products are superior to India's in the missile and nuclear field.
  • The United States has come up with incentives for Pakistan to stay out of the nuclear club, including restoration of U.S. aid, more World Bank loans, and a refund of $658-million for F-16 fighter jets.
  • Several Pakistani newspapers have called for the United States to provide a nuclear shield or allow Pakistan to go nuclear without economic sanctions.
  • Analysts expect severe international sanctions to be imposed on Pakistan if it goes ahead with nuclear tests, which would be devastating for the country's economy.
  • The United States or the United Nations may attempt to bring together India and Pakistan to sign a "no-first-strike" agreement to reduce the threat of nuclear war between the two nations.

Statistics:

  • Pakistan's foreign debts: $43 billion
  • Pakistan's appeal for international aid: $2.5 billion for the next fiscal year
  • U.S. aid refund: $658 million for F-16 fighter jets
  • Economic sanctions that may be imposed on Pakistan: potentially devastating and severe

Sources:

  • Frontier Post newspaper: "Pakistan's resolve and self-esteem are now on test"
  • Pakistani foreign minister Gohar Ayub Khan: "We are very confident our systems and products are better"
  • Senior cleric Maulana Akhtar Mohammadi: "The Koran instructs Muslims to keep their strength and horses ready to frighten the enemies of Allah"
  • S. M. Inam, leading industrialist: "Pakistan's Prime Minister should demand that Western powers write off Pakistan's foreign debts"
  • Deputy secretary of state Strobe Talbott: Led a high-level U.S. delegation to Islamabad with incentives for Pakistan to stay out of the nuclear club