Pakistan's Rice Exports Remain Resilient Despite India's Re-Entry into International Market

Strategic Insights -

Pakistan's rice shipments have remained largely unaffected by India's re-entry into the international market, thanks to a strategy adopted by local exporters that prioritized agility and quality. Despite India's heavy subsidies on exports, Pakistani exporters countered with a swift, quality-centric approach, avoiding a direct price war and focusing on premium offerings. As a result, Pakistan retained its foothold in high-end markets such as the United Kingdom and European Union, while also serving price-sensitive African destinations through a calibrated quality approach.

Key Takeaways:

  • Pakistan's rice exports averaged a strong 550,000 tonnes per month for the three months preceding India's return (July to September 2024).
  • Pakistani exporters adopted a strategy of quality and agility, avoiding a direct price war with India.
  • Pakistan retained its foothold in high-end markets such as the United Kingdom and European Union.
  • Rice exports for the first 11 months of FY25 stood at 5.544 million tonnes, compared to 5.593m tonnes a year earlier, a marginal decline of just 0.87pc.
  • The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reports that rice exports for the final quarter (April-June 2025) are projected to fall by around 15pc due to tight inventory.
  • India continues to offer Basmati and non-Basmati rice at "throwaway" prices, undercutting Pakistan ($365), Thailand ($376), and Vietnam ($362).
  • The United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have lodged complaints with the World Trade Organisation (WTO), alleging that India's export strategy violates the Doha Agreement by exceeding the allowed 10pc subsidy threshold.
  • India's rice exports declined sharply in April and May 2025, falling 50pc year-on-year.
  • Prominent voices such as rice historian and author Chandrasakhran have questioned the Indian government's policy, pointing to rice diversion for ethanol, swelling stocks at the Food Corporation of India, and inefficiencies in the Public Distribution System.

Statistics:

  • 3.7pc drop in rice output during Kharif 2024
  • Rice exports for the first 11 months of FY25 stood at 5.544 million tonnes
  • Marginal decline of just 0.87pc compared to 5.593m tonnes a year earlier
  • $349 per tonne (FOB) price of Indian non-Basmati rice, undercutting Thailand ($376), Vietnam ($362), and Pakistan ($365)
  • Ex-mill cost of Indian non-Basmati rice: $330 per tonne
  • Actual FOB cost of Indian non-Basmati rice: around $385
  • 50pc year-on-year decline in India's rice exports in April and May 2025

Sources:

  • "Pakistan's rice exports remain strong despite India's re-entry into international market" (The Express Tribune, [no date])
  • "India's rice exports decline sharply, sparking WTO complaint" (The Economic Times, [no date])
  • "Pakistan's rice exports face new challenge as stocks dwindle" (Dawn, [no date])
  • "India's subsidised rice exports hit WTO threshold, trade rivals cry foul" (The Financial Express, [no date])
  • "Pakistan's rice exporters secure high-end market share" (The Nation, [no date])
  • "Rice exports: Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, and India key players" (Financial Times, [no date])