Pipeline Exports to Non-CIS Destinations Reach 3.75mn b/d in Fourth Quarter

Strategic Insights -

Pipeline exports to non-CIS destinations are set to reach 3.75mn b/d in the fourth quarter, up by 4pc or 144,000 b/d from the third-quarter plan. The increase is largely due to a boost in shipments from the Baltic port of Primorsk and the planned start of shipments through the Brody-Odessa pipeline to Pivdenne on the Black Sea. Russian producers, accounting for most of the increase, will ship 3.21mn b/d in October-December, while overall transit volumes are set slightly lower. Baltic ports are expected to handle 1.3mn b/d of crude delivered by pipeline, with Primorsk slated to receive 1.05mn b/d.

Key Takeaways:

  • Pipeline exports to non-CIS destinations are set to reach 3.75mn b/d in the fourth quarter, up by 4pc or 144,000 b/d from the third-quarter plan.
  • Russian producers, shipping 3.21mn b/d in October-December, account for most of the increase in pipeline exports.
  • The planned start of shipments through the Brody-Odessa pipeline to Pivdenne on the Black Sea is expected to boost exports to 3.21mn b/d.
  • Baltic ports are expected to handle 1.3mn b/d of crude delivered by pipeline, with Primorsk slated to receive 1.05mn b/d.
  • The launch of shipments from Brody to Pivdenne is expected to have a negative impact on the southern leg of the Druzhba pipeline to the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
  • Yukos will be the only exporter through Butinge in the fourth quarter, with volumes to the nearby Mazeikiai refinery controlled by Yukos, having been cut.

Sources:

  • "Monthly Oil and Gas Review of Russia", see p14-15.