Politics in Uganda: A Tale of Two Politicians - Muhammad Muyanja-Mbabaali and Twaha Kagabo

Strategic Insights -

In Uganda's tumultuous political landscape, loyalty and power struggles are common phenomena. The recent foray of veteran politician Muhammad Muyanja-Mbabaali into parliament, defeating Twaha Kagabo in the NRM primaries, highlights the rapid changes in Uganda's politics. Muyanja-Mbabaali's victory comes after a decade of navigating controversy and precarious court decisions, including a forgery case that once halted his political ambitions. Kagabo, on the other hand, has seen his support base dwindle following a series of high-profile decisions, including a U-turn on his stance on government programs. As the 2026 elections approach, both politicians will face new challengers and the intricacies of Uganda's ever-changing political climate.

Key Takeaways:

  • Muhammad Muyanja-Mbabaali has won the NRM primaries defeating Twaha Kagabo by a margin of an unspecified number of votes.
  • The outcome is seen as an indicator of the rapid changes in Uganda's politics, with Muyanja-Mbabaali's victory coming despite past controversy and court challenges.
  • Kagabo has seen his support base dwindle following a series of high-profile decisions, including a U-turn on his stance on government programs and his announcement of a sabbatical from elective politics.
  • Kagabo's fallout with NUP started in earnest in 2022, when he encouraged NUP legislators to support government poverty alleviation programs.
  • Dr. Kagabo has since joined Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba's outfit, dubbed Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), before switching to the NRM to support President Museveni's presidential bid.
  • Muyanja-Mbabaali has been in and out of Parliament since 2010, with past court decisions challenging his academic qualifications and surrogate involvement in politics.
  • The veteran politician has turned the tide, touted by his party as a valuable asset, but faces new challenges as he readies for the 2026 elections.
  • NUP is vowing to be more cautious in its candidate selection process after a public outcry following Dr. Kagabo's decision, citing the need for thorough background checks on potential candidates.

Statistics:

  • 8,114: The margin by which Muhammad Muyanja-Mbabaali defeated Nsubuga in 2016.
  • 2,999 (votes): The number of votes Mr Kagabo received in the 2021 parliamentary poll, placing third as an Independent candidate.
  • 2,199: The margin of Twaha Kagabo's victory in the 2021 parliamentary polls.

Sources:

  • The Observer, June 2022
  • The Observer, 2023
  • The Independent, 2023
  • NUP, 2023
  • Uganda Parliament, 2021