Polls in 2020 Election More Accurate Due to Increased Voter Turnout

Strategic Insights -

National polls from The Guardian, CNN, and Fox News are predicting a Biden win, citing increased voter turnout and accuracy. Despite concerns stemming from the 2016 election, where polls predicted a Clinton win that ultimately didn't materialize, analysts argue that this year's polls will be more accurate due to a larger sample size and higher voter turnout.

Key Takeaways:

  • National polling this election is expected to be more accurate due to a substantial increase in voter turnout, with close to 98 million early ballots collected nationally, representing more than two-thirds of all votes cast in 2016.
  • Early voting numbers alone represented more than two-thirds of all votes cast in 2016, according to Business Insider, and this year's numbers are expected to be even higher.
  • The RealClearPolitics and NBC News' national polling averages put Biden at a 7-point lead over Trump as of Nov. 2, while FiveThirtyEight's national polling tracker reported an 8.4-point lead on the same day.
  • Polls in 2016 over-exaggerated Clinton's lead, claiming she was set to win by a landslide, but with national polls from Fox News, The Economist, and ABC News showing her winning by 2-3 percentage points, which was within a normal margin of error.
  • The demographic that typically leans Democrat, including white Americans with four-year degrees, Black Americans, Latinos, Asians, and other minority groups, has grown by 1-2% as the country becomes more diverse and college educated.
  • Trump's main demographic, white Americans without a college education, has shrunk by about 3% in the last four years, according to NBC News.

Statistics:

  • Close to 60 million ballots were cast before the election in 2016, according to statistics collected by the U.S. Elections Project.
  • 98 million early ballots were collected nationally as of Nov. 2, with 9 million from Florida.
  • 138 million ballots were cast in total in 2016, with more than two-thirds of those being early votes, according to Business Insider.
  • Biden has a 7-point lead over Trump according to RealClearPolitics, and an 8.4-point lead according to FiveThirtyEight, as of Nov. 2.
  • Clinton lost several swing states by a very small margin in 2016, and Florida was won by Trump by a difference of just 120,000 votes, according to USA Today.

Sources:

  • The Guardian
  • CNN
  • Fox News
  • NBC News
  • The Cook Political Report
  • The New York Times
  • Business Insider
  • USA Today