Predicting Playoff Baseball: A Scientific Approach

Strategic Insights -

Playoff baseball can be a challenging and unpredictable task, with many variables at play. Two books, "Baseball Between the Numbers" and "Winners," offer a scientific approach to understanding what makes a team successful in October. The authors gather data on various team characteristics and reveal the "Secret Sauce" that correlates with winning playoff baseball.

Key Takeaways:

  • The "Secret Sauce" consists of three key factors: Expected Wins Added over Replacement Level (EWA/RL), Pitcher Strikeout Rate, and Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA). These factors have an 11% effect on who wins the playoffs.
  • Pitching and defense are crucial to success in the playoffs, as regular-season offense shows no statistical correlation with postseason success.
  • The New York Mets and Minnesota Twins stand out as top contenders in the playoffs, with the Mets ranking high in pitcher strikeout rate and the Twins ranking in the top three in strikeouts.
  • The probability of a team winning the division series is around 35-40%, making the outcome unpredictable.
  • The current playoff format makes it rare for any team to have more than a 25 or 30% chance of winning the whole championship.

Statistics:

  • Among playoff teams, the Mets have the 10th-best pitcher strikeout rate in the majors.
  • The Twins have the best composite ranking of any playoff team in the American League.
  • The Toronto Blue Jays finished with the top ranking in the majors, but missed out on the playoffs.
  • The probability of a team winning the division series is around 35-40%.
  • The probability of a team winning the whole championship is less than 30%.

Sources:

  • "Baseball Between the Numbers" by Jonah Keri, et al.
  • "Winners" by Dayn Perry
  • "The Baseball Prospectus" (online)