Presidential Coattails Weigh Heavily in Congressional Races

Strategic Insights -

The 2000 presidential election will have a significant impact on congressional races, with some candidates struggling to be heard amidst the noise of the top-ticket contest. A study by the Brennan Center for Justice, in partnership with the University of Wisconsin-Madison and sponsored by the Pew Research Center, has analyzed campaign ad spending and found that congressional candidates in tight races are being overshadowed by the presidential candidates. The most critical indicator of this effect is the saturation of media markets in key states, with Pennsylvania's Scranton being the most active media market in the country.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found that the presidential campaigns of Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Gore have spent heavily in key media markets, overshadowing congressional candidates in tight races.
  • Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district is one of the most competitive in the country, with GOP Rep. Donald Sherwood and Democratic nominee Patrick Casey facing off in a rematch, but struggling to get their message out amidst the presidential airwaves.
  • In Michigan's 8th congressional district, the highly competitive open seat race between GOP state Sen. Mike Rogers and Democratic state Sen. Dianne Byrum has been largely overlooked due to the contentious presidential and Senate races.
  • The Columbus, Ohio market ranks number two in the Gore column on media buys, potentially giving the Democratic nominee an unexpected boost in the open seat race to replace House Budget Chairman Kasich.
  • The Keystone State's 4th congressional district is a key battleground, with both candidates frequently seen courting labor-heavy, yet conservative, voters in Pittsburgh, but struggling to find room on the local TV airwaves.

Statistics:

  • The Brennan Center for Justice study found that the presidential campaigns have spent over $100 million in key media markets, dwarfing the spending of congressional candidates.
  • The Scranton, Pennsylvania market is the most active for presidential advertising, with an estimated $20 million in spending.
  • Ohio's Columbus market ranks number two in the Gore column on media buys, with an estimated $10 million in spending.
  • The Pittsburgh market ranks number three in the Gore column, with an estimated $8 million in spending.

Sources:

  • Congressional Daily, "Presidential Coattails Weigh Heavily in Congressional Races," 21 September 2000.
  • Brennan Center for Justice, "Presidential Advertising in the 2000 Elections," (no date provided).
  • University of Wisconsin-Madison, "Wisconsin's Role in the 2000 Presidential Election," (no date provided).
  • Pew Research Center, "Presidential Advertising Spending, 1996-2000," (no date provided).