Projected Decline in Local Tourist Visits to Kenya's National Parks

Strategic Insights -

The Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife anticipates a 25 percent decrease in local tourist visits to national parks within the first year of implementing a proposed fee increase. The plan aims to help the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) plug an annual budget deficit of approximately Sh12 billion. According to the ministry's estimates, the number of local tourism visits will remain below 2024 numbers for at least three years.

Key Takeaways:

  • The proposed fee increase is expected to result in a 25 percent decline in local tourist visits to national parks within the first year, from 2,347,591 in 2024 to 1,760,693.
  • The number of local tourists is projected to remain below 2024 numbers for at least three years.
  • The ministry's model shows domestic tourists are the most price-sensitive, with numbers expected to decline by 586,898 (25 percent) in the first year.
  • Foreign visitors, excluding those from the East African Community (EAC) countries, were 853,511 in 2024, with a projected 4.97 percent fall to 811,085 in the first year.
  • The revenue from locals and EAC nationals is expected to rise from Sh1.48 billion in 2024 to Sh1.67 billion in the first year and Sh2.53 billion in the fourth year.
  • The revenue from visitors outside the EAC region is projected to rise from Sh5.93 billion in 2024 to Sh8.45 billion in the first year of enhanced fees and Sh14.05 billion in the fourth year.
  • The proposed fee increase is expected to support wildlife conservation in Kenya, creating a multiplier effect in various sectors of the economy.
  • Locals' average annual spending in national parks was Sh631 in 2024, while visitors outside the EAC spent 11 times more, at Sh6,943. Under the proposed rates, the average spending is expected to rise to Sh947 for locals and Sh10,415 for foreigners.

Statistics:

  • 2,347,591 local tourists visited national parks in 2024.
  • 586,898 is the projected decline in local tourist visits within the first year, representing a 25 percent drop.
  • 1,760,693 is the projected number of local tourists in the first year of the fee increase.
  • 4.97 percent is the projected fall in foreign visitors to parks, excluding those from EAC countries, in the first year.
  • Sh1.48 billion is the revenue from locals and EAC nationals in 2024.
  • Sh1.67 billion is the projected revenue from locals and EAC nationals in the first year.
  • Sh2.53 billion is the projected revenue from locals and EAC nationals in the fourth year.
  • Sh5.93 billion is the revenue from visitors outside the EAC region in 2024.
  • Sh8.45 billion is the projected revenue from visitors outside the EAC region in the first year of enhanced fees.
  • Sh14.05 billion is the projected revenue from visitors outside the EAC region in the fourth year.
  • Sh6,943 is the average annual spending of visitors outside EAC in 2024.
  • Sh631 is the average annual spending of locals in 2024.
  • Sh10,415 is the projected average spending of foreigners in the first year.

Sources:

  • Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife, draft Wildlife Conservation and Management (Access and Conservation) (Fees) Regulations, 2025
  • Kenya Tourism Board, Kenya National Parks and Reserves Statistics (2024)
  • Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife, press release on proposed fee increase for national parks.