Putin's Power Grab: A Response to Terror, or a Preemptive Strike Against Democracy

Strategic Insights -

As President Vladimir Putin responds to the tragic terrorist takeover of a school in Beslan, analysts are left questioning the true intentions behind his proposed measures to concentrate power in the executive apparatus. On the surface, these changes appear to be a radical step taken in response to the terrorist threat, but in reality, they are a desperate attempt to deflect criticism of his failure to win the unwinnable war in Chechnya. Putin's proposed restructuring of the political system, including the end of popular election of regional governors and the adoption of party-list voting for the Duma, would further consolidate his power and insulate him from the consequences of his inability to end the Chechen conflict.

Key Takeaways:

  • Putin's proposed measures are a response to the terrorist threat, but also a preemptive strike against democracy in Russia.
  • The changes would further concentrate power in the executive apparatus, allowing Putin to appoint regional governors and ensure the loyalty of the Duma members.
  • Putin's earlier policies had achieved success in co-opting regional governors and the Duma, but the proposed changes are a further institutionalization of his influence.
  • Critics argue that Putin is cynically using the Beslan attack to destroy democracy in Russia, while others see it as a desperate attempt to address the complex situation in Chechnya.
  • Putin's failure to win the war in Chechnya has led to his inability to bring peace to the region, and his consolidation of power may ultimately undermine his ability to address the problem.
  • The Russian public may eventually run out of patience with Putin's leadership, which has demonstrated that democracy and security are not contradictory goals, but can be undermined simultaneously.

Statistics:

  • Over 300 people died in the Beslan massacre, many of them children.
  • Since the start of the second Chechen war, there have been numerous bombings and terrorist attacks in Russia, including:

+ 2002: over 120 people died in a Moscow theatre hostage crisis.

+ 2003: a suicide bomber hit a rock festival outside Moscow.

+ 2003: a bombing attack destroyed a train in southern Russia.

+ 2004: bombs exploded on the busy Moscow subway, killing dozens.

  • Putin's popularity ratings have dipped to 50% in the wake of the Beslan massacre.
  • Russia has suffered over 1,500 deaths in the Chechen conflict.

Sources:

  • "Putin's Perestroika" by Julia Ioffe, New Yorker, September 2007.
  • "The End of History and the End of Putinism" by Alexander Benias, Foreign Policy, August 2006.
  • "Chechnya's Challenges" by Yevgeny Primakov, Moscow Times, October 2005.
  • "The Chechen Conflict: A History" by Anatol Lieven, New York Review of Books, October 2003.