Real-Time Surveillance Indicators for COVID-19 in Colorado Show Promise

Strategic Insights -

Research conducted in Colorado used an archive of COVID-19 data to reconstruct seven real-time surveillance indicators and assess their ability to predict COVID-19 hospital admissions. The study found that hospital-based surveillance metrics were among the best predictors of COVID-19 hospital admissions during and after the public health emergency, with wastewater and test positivity also providing valuable information. The findings suggest that hospital-based reporting should be a surveillance priority and that wastewater surveillance and test positivity can improve situational awareness for COVID-19 in Colorado.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study used an archive of COVID-19 data in Colorado from October 2020 to March 2024 to reconstruct seven real-time surveillance indicators.
  • The indicators included hospital-based surveillance metrics, real-time hospital census data, emergency-department based syndromic surveillance, wastewater surveillance, and test positivity.
  • The study found that hospital-based surveillance metrics, including real-time hospital census data and emergency-department based syndromic surveillance, were among the best predictors of COVID-19 hospital admissions during and after the public health emergency.
  • Wastewater surveillance was found to be a weaker individual predictor, but its removal from the multi-indicator models resulted in a decrease in model performance, indicating its unique contribution to situational awareness.
  • Test positivity, despite being imprecise, served as a leading indicator of COVID-19 hospitalizations.
  • Case reporting was not found to be essential to real-time monitoring of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Colorado.
  • The study suggests that hospital-based reporting should be a surveillance priority, and that wastewater surveillance and test positivity can improve situational awareness for COVID-19 in Colorado.
  • The generalizability of the findings to other regions and respiratory illnesses warrants further investigation.

Statistics:

  • The study used an archive of COVID-19 data from October 2020 to March 2024.
  • Thestudy found that hospital-based surveillance metrics predicted COVID-19 hospital admissions with accuracy.
  • Wastewater surveillance provided unique information, despite being a weaker individual predictor.
  • Test positivity served as a leading indicator of COVID-19 hospitalizations, despite being imprecise.
  • The study concluded that hospital-based reporting should be a surveillance priority.

Sources:

  • Scientific Reports, "Identifying Real Time Surveillance Indicators To Estimate Covid-19 Hospital Admissions In Colorado During and After the Public Health Emergency", 2025;15(1).
  • Nature Portfolio, Heidelberger Platz 3, Berlin, 14197, Germany (www.nature.com/; www.nature.com/srep/).
  • Elizabeth J. Carlton, University of Colorado Anschutz, Colorado School of Public Health, Dept. of Environmental and Occupational Health, 13001 E 17TH Pl, B1119, Aurora, CO 80045, United States.