Recognition of Palestine: A Catalyst for Change or a Hollow Victory?

Strategic Insights -

The UK's decision to follow France in recognising Palestinian statehood adds urgency to the question of whether such recognition will lead to real change or become a substitute for action. While UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has made recognition conditional on Israel taking certain steps, the formulation effectively gives Israel a veto over recognition. A more coherent position would be grounded in international law, which recognises Israel as the occupying power and the Palestinians as an occupied people with a right to self-determination.

The war on Gaza has had a devastating impact, with leading human rights organisations calling it genocide. Despite this, the UK and European states have failed to enforce international norms and, in some cases, have actively undermined them. The International Court of Justice's provisional measures ordering Israel to prevent genocidal acts take on profound significance, but the UK and European states have been slow to act.

Key Takeaways:

  • The recognition of Palestinian statehood by the UK and Europe must be tied to real measures to end the war on Gaza and dismantle the occupation, otherwise it risks becoming a substitute for action.
  • UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's conditionality on recognition, which effectively gives Israel a veto, is a flawed approach that undermines international law.
  • The UK and European states have failed to enforce international norms, including the International Court of Justice's provisional measures, and have actively undermined them in some cases.
  • The settlement enterprise in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is a state-directed policy apparatus that must be targeted with sanctions, including on ministers, military officials, and lawmakers who facilitate or incite violations of international law.
  • The EU and UK have imposed limited sanctions on a handful of violent settlers and two of Israel's most extreme ministers, but these measures are insufficient and must be expanded to include all those who facilitate or incite violations of international law.

Statistics:

  • More than 30 arms export licences to Israel were suspended by the UK in September 2022, but this partial ban exempted components for the F-35 fighter jet programme.
  • The EU came close to suspending part of the EU-Israel association agreement but took Israel's word that it would alleviate the starvation in Gaza, despite continued violations of humanitarian access and deteriorating conditions in the West Bank.
  • The EU has announced partial suspension of Israel's participation in educational research activities, but failed to gather enough consensus to take this measure further.
  • The settlement enterprise in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is a state-directed policy apparatus that may be extended to Gaza.

Sources:

  • The report of the UK parliament's foreign affairs committee on Israel's conduct.
  • The International Court of Justice's provisional measures ordering Israel to prevent genocidal acts.
  • The UK's suspension of more than 30 arms export licences to Israel in September 2022.
  • The EU's announcement of partial suspension of Israel's participation in educational research activities.
  • The writer's statement as a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and the Center for American Progress.