Republicans Think Ahead to 2008 Presidential Election

Strategic Insights -

At the Republican National Convention, attendees are preparing for a post-G.W. Bush era, with several potential candidates angling for the 2008 presidential nomination. Among those making their moves are former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Sen. John McCain, and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who have taken every chance to impress delegates, activists, and donors.

Key Takeaways:

  • At least a dozen potential 2008 Republican presidential candidates are using the convention to start angling for the party's nomination, including Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and others like Sen. Sam Brownback, Sen. Bill Frist, and Sen. Rick Santorum.
  • McCain's health could be a challenge, as he would be 72 on Election Day 2008, making him the oldest president ever elected, and he has had recurring bouts of malignant melanoma.
  • Jeb Bush, President George W. Bush's brother, might have an easier time if his name were different, as he built a solid base in Florida and coasted to a second term in 2002.
  • The Republican party has a history of nominating familiar candidates, with four instances over the last 40 years where the party nominated a candidate who had previously run: Richard Nixon in 1968, Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Bob Dole in 1996.
  • McCain's second campaign would likely face significant opposition from conservative Republicans, who are wary of his independent appeal and his willingness to challenge party policies.

Statistics:

  • More than a dozen potential 2008 Republican presidential candidates are using the convention to start angling for the party's nomination.
  • 72: The age McCain would be on Election Day 2008.
  • 56 percent: The percentage of votes Jeb Bush received in 2002 en route to a second term as Governor of Florida.
  • 4: The number of times Republicans have nominated a candidate who had previously run: Richard Nixon in 1968, Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Bob Dole in 1996.

Sources:

  • Steven Thomma, NEW YORK _ They're talking `04 at the Republican National Convention, but just below the surface, they're thinking `08.
  • Steven Thomma, The Republican National Convention, where possible future presidential candidates are angling for a higher profile.
  • American Israel Public Affairs Committee.