Rising Breast Cancer Burden in Aging Population: A Global Epidemiological Analysis

Strategic Insights -

A new study has shed light on the alarming rise in breast cancer incidence and mortality rates among individuals aged 55 and above worldwide. The research, conducted by a team of investigators from Southern Medical University in Guangzhou, People's Republic of China, reveals that breast cancer remains a leading cause of death among women, with a significant increase in cases and deaths observed in the 55+ population from 1990 to 2021. The study, published in Frontiers in Public Health, emphasizes the need for tailored public health strategies to mitigate the projected global burden of breast cancer in this high-risk demographic.

Key Takeaways:

  • The breast cancer incidence and mortality rates sharply increase with age, particularly in individuals aged 55 and above, with a significant increase in absolute cases and deaths observed from 1990 to 2021.
  • The study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study data to analyze breast cancer incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for individuals aged 55 and older from 1990 to 2021.
  • Temporal trends were quantified using age-standardized rates (ASRs) and Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs), while Attributable Fractions (PAFs) delineated sex-specific contributions of modifiable risk factors.
  • The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projected the future burden to 2040, rigorously validated by sensitivity analysis, and an evidence-based scenario analysis was employed to model the potential impact of various public health interventions.
  • Globally, the age-standardized mortality rate declined modestly, but profound disparities emerged across Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, with low-to-middle SDI regions experiencing sharp increases in incidence and mortality.
  • Risk factor analysis revealed distinct sex-specific profiles, with male burden predominantly attributable to high alcohol consumption and female burden driven by metabolic risks (e.g., high BMI).
  • Baseline projections to 2040 suggest rate stabilization, but scenario analysis demonstrated high malleability: enhanced screening could avert millions of cases, whereas pessimistic scenarios (e.g., COVID-19 pandemic disruptions) could reverse current progress.

Statistics:

  • Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates significantly increased in the 55+ population from 1990 to 2021, with a 25.4% increase in absolute cases and 19.1% increase in absolute deaths observed in low-to-middle SDI regions.
  • Age-standardized mortality rate declined by 3.2% globally from 1990 to 2021, but the decline was not observed in low-to-middle SDI regions.
  • The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projected a 14.5% increase in breast cancer incidence and a 10.2% increase in breast cancer mortality in the 55+ population from 2021 to 2040.
  • Enhanced screening could avert an estimated 2.3 million breast cancer cases and 1.1 million breast cancer deaths worldwide from 2021 to 2040.

Sources:

  • NewsRx. New Global Burden of Disease Findings Has Been Reported by Researchers at Southern Medical University [Breast cancer burden (1990-2040) in individuals aged 55 and above: a GBD 2021 analysis of global trends, sex-specific risk factors, and ...]. Cancer Weekly. September 2, 2025; p 472.
  • Wanmei Lin, Shimao Jian, Yuewen Tang, Guangyu Yao, and others. (2025). Breast cancer burden (1990-2040) in individuals aged 55 and above: a GBD 2021 analysis of global trends, sex-specific risk factors, and intervention impact. Frontiers in Public Health, 13, 1586497.