Rising CO2 Emissions in Developing Economies Pose Sustainability Challenge

Strategic Insights -

Research from the International Business School in Changchun, People's Republic of China, has highlighted the increasing threat of carbon dioxide emissions in rapidly developing economies, which poses a significant challenge to global climate objectives and the achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The study focused on the Next Eleven (N-11) nations, characterized by fast economic growth and heavy reliance on natural resources, which are particularly vulnerable to this sustainability dilemma. The research found that key socioeconomic factors, economic growth, biocapacity, natural resource rents, government effectiveness, and technological innovation influence CO2 emissions in the N-11 region.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study investigated the relationship between key socioeconomic factors, economic growth, biocapacity, natural resource rents, government effectiveness, and technological innovation on CO2 emissions in the N-11 region.
  • The analysis was conducted within the framework of the SDGs, emphasizing climate action and sustainable development.
  • The study applied unit root and cointegration tests, with Westerlund's method confirming long-run relationships amongst variables.
  • The Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) results showed that technological innovation, government effectiveness, and biocapacity significantly reduced CO2 emissions.
  • The Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) model indicated that governance and innovation exerted stronger emission-reducing effects at higher quantiles of the emissions distribution.
  • The environmental burden of economic growth and resource rents intensified at higher levels, highlighting the limitations of extractive economic strategies.
  • The study concluded that strengthening institutional quality, fostering technological development, and enhancing ecological resilience are crucial for achieving sustainability in high-emission N-11 countries.

Statistics:

  • The N-11 nations, characterized by fast economic growth and heavy reliance on natural resources, are particularly vulnerable to the sustainability dilemma.
  • Seven countries - Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the Philippines - are excluded from the biocapacity analysis due to data limitations.
  • The study applied unit root and cointegration tests, with Westerlund's method confirming long-run relationships amongst variables.
  • The GMM results showed that technological innovation, government effectiveness, and biocapacity significantly reduced CO2 emissions.
  • The MMQR model indicated that governance and innovation exerted stronger emission-reducing effects at higher quantiles of the emissions distribution (78.4% at the 0.95 quantile).
  • The study was published in the Geological Journal in 2025.

Sources:

  • Geological Journal. Pathways To 2030 Sdgs: How Governance, Human Capital, and Green Technology Shape Carbon Reductions In the N-11 Bloc. Geological Journal, 2025.
  • International Business School. Pathways To 2030 Sdgs: How Governance, Human Capital, and Green Technology Shape Carbon Reductions In the N-11 Bloc. Geological Journal, 2025.
  • NewsRx. Reports from International Business School Highlight Recent Findings in Sustainable Development (Pathways To 2030 Sdgs: How Governance, Human Capital, and Green Technology Shape Carbon Reductions In the N-11 Bloc). Global Warming Focus. October 13, 2025; p 881.