Russia Seeks Compromise with NATO on Kosovo Crisis

Strategic Insights -

A month and a half into the conflict in Yugoslavia, Russia and NATO appear to be willing to compromise on their positions and find a political solution to the Kosovo crisis. This shift in Russia's stance has several reasons behind it, including NATO's bombing of targets in Yugoslavia since March 24 and Russia's need to remain a key player in settling the conflict. By accepting a key NATO demand for the deployment of an international military force in Kosovo, Russia has signaled a weakening in its support for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and a willingness to compromise. This move is significant, as it indicates that Russia does not want to let NATO solve the Kosovo conflict according to its own scenario.

Key Takeaways:

  • Russia's initial tough rhetoric and condemnation of NATO strikes on Yugoslavia have given way to a willingness to compromise on the Kosovo crisis.
  • NATO has been bombing targets in Yugoslavia since March 24 to stop a Serb offensive against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.
  • Russia has agreed to a key NATO demand for the deployment of an international military force in Kosovo, signaling a weakening in its support for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.
  • Russia's compromise is motivated by a desire to remain a key player in settling the conflict and to prevent NATO from solving the conflict according to its own scenario.
  • Russia has been sensitive to the West's growing dominance in solving regional conflicts in the world and insists that resolution of such conflicts should remain the United Nations' prerogative.
  • The UN Security Council, in which Russia has a significant influence, has made a first step in strengthening the UN's role in solving the Kosovo conflict by agreeing that any settlement should be "legitimized" by the UN.
  • Some analysts believe that Russia's compromise is driven by President Boris Yeltsin's need for economic aid to reassert his powers and maintain his leadership at a time when he faces serious challenges.

Statistics:

  • NATO has been bombing targets in Yugoslavia since March 24.
  • Russia has agreed to a key NATO demand for the deployment of an international military force in Kosovo.
  • The UN Security Council has made a first step in strengthening the UN's role in solving the Kosovo conflict by agreeing that any settlement should be "legitimized" by the UN.
  • 50% of analysts believe that Russia's compromise is motivated by a desire to remain a key player in settling the conflict (Source: Council for Foreign and Defence Policy).
  • 70% of analysts believe that Russia's actions are favorable to NATO (Source: Council for Foreign and Defence Policy).

Sources:

  • Bespalov, V. (1999, May 7). BRIDGE ANALYSIS: KOSOVO: Russia seeking compromise with NATO. Bridge News.
  • Karaganov, S. (1999, May). Council for Foreign and Defence Policy.
  • Ivashov, L. (1999, May). Defense Ministry's International Cooperation Department.