Russian Leadership Continues to Obfuscate on Peace Talks

Strategic Insights -

European leaders and Donald Trump have confirmed that Vladimir Putin had agreed to a one-on-one meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy to kickstart peace talks, but the Russian leadership continues to downplay the possibility. Sources close to the Kremlin said only that Putin was open to the "idea" of "raising the level of representatives" at a future meeting. Meanwhile, Austria, Switzerland, and France have offered to host the meeting, with Switzerland indicating it would set aside its international criminal court obligations. Donald Trump has ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine to enforce a potential peace deal, but has suggested Washington may provide air support to Ukraine in conjunction with European allies.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Russian leadership continues to walk back its earlier commitment to a one-on-one meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, with Sergei Lavrov saying any leaders' meeting "must be prepared with utmost thoroughness".
  • Viktor Orbán, the pro-Putin Hungarian prime minister, had a conversation with Trump about the possibility of talks being held in Budapest, but there was no apparent confirmation from the Hungarian side.
  • A war crimes warrant could obligate Hungarian authorities to arrest a visiting Putin, but Hungary is withdrawing from the international criminal court.
  • Austria, Switzerland, and France have offered to host the meeting, with Switzerland indicating it would set aside its international criminal court obligations.
  • Donald Trump has ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine to enforce a potential peace deal, but has suggested Washington may provide air support to Ukraine in conjunction with European allies.
  • Putin opposes Ukraine joining Nato, and Trump has indicated that Washington may be willing to help Ukraine with security guarantees, but not through Nato.
  • Nato military leaders are expected to meet on Wednesday to discuss Ukraine and the way forward, with Gen Dan Caine, chair of the US joint chiefs of staff, and Alexus Grynkewich, Nato's top military commander, expected to brief the leaders on the results of the Alaska meeting between Trump and Putin.
  • Russia launched its biggest air assault in more than a month on Ukraine, with 270 drones and 10 missiles fired, causing big fires at energy facilities in the central Poltava region.
  • Ukraine maintains control of the Zaporizhzhia region and its attacks have periodically knocked out electricity in Russian-held areas.
  • Russia and Ukraine exchanged more bodies of their war dead, with Moscow handing over 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers and receiving 19 bodies of its own fallen soldiers in return.

Statistics:

  • 270 drones and 10 missiles were fired by Russia in its biggest air assault in more than a month on Ukraine.
  • Big fires were caused at energy facilities in the central Poltava region, home to Ukraine's only oil refinery.
  • 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers were handed over by Russia as part of a body exchange.
  • 19 bodies of Russian fallen soldiers were received by Moscow as part of the same exchange.
  • 270 is the number of drones fired by Russia in the assault.
  • 10 is the number of missiles fired by Russia in the assault.

Sources:

  • The Guardian: "Russian leadership continues to obfuscate on peace talks"
  • Reuters: "Nato military leaders to meet on Ukraine"
  • Fox News: "Trump suggests Washington may provide air support to Ukraine"
  • RIA News Agency: "Ukrainian drone attack knocks out power to Russian-controlled areas of Zaporizhzhia region"
  • Tass News Agency: "Russia and Ukraine exchange more bodies of their war dead"