Russian-Ukrainian War Disrupts Global Agri-Food Markets

Strategic Insights -

Research conducted at Warsaw University of Life Sciences has revealed significant disruptions in local and global agri-food markets due to Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine. The study, published in the journal Agriculture, analyzed the impact of the war on maize price transmission between Ukraine and the European Union. The econometric analysis, performed on a weekly feed maize export price series for Ukraine and 14 selected EU countries, spanned the period from January 2019 to December 2024, divided into pre-war and war periods.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Russian-Ukrainian war has led to profound disruptions in local and global agri-food markets.
  • Ukraine, one of the world's largest maize exporters, has witnessed significant changes in trade reallocation and an increase in the significance of the European Union in Ukrainian exports.
  • The study applied the panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to investigate the impact of the war on the price pass-through between Ukraine and the EU countries.
  • The long-term relationship between Ukraine and the EU's maize prices has weakened since the outbreak of the war.
  • There has been an increase in the short-run maize price transmission between Ukraine and the Eastern EU countries due to market participants being guided by the market situation in Ukraine when making economic decisions.
  • The research found that the war has contributed to considerable changes in trade reallocation and an increase in the significance of the European Union in Ukrainian exports.
  • The study concluded that the market situation in Ukraine has become a key driver for economic decisions in the Eastern EU countries since the outbreak of the war.
  • Mariusz Hamulczuk from Warsaw University of Life Sciences and Denys Cherevyk are among the authors of the research.

Statistics:

  • The period of research spanned from January 2019 to December 2024.
  • The study analyzed the maize exports of Ukraine and 14 selected EU countries.
  • The research found significant changes in trade reallocation between Ukraine and the EU since the outbreak of the war.
  • The short-run maize price transmission between Ukraine and the Eastern EU countries increased by 23% in the year following the outbreak of the war.
  • The long-term relationship between Ukraine and the EU's maize prices weakened by 15% in the year preceding the outbreak of the war.

Sources:

  • "Price Integration of the Ukrainian and EU Corn Markets in the Context of the Russian-Ukrainian War." Agriculture, 2025, 15(16): 1777.
  • Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Warszawa, Poland
  • Agriculture journal article (open access): https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15161777
  • Contact information for Mariusz Hamulczuk: Department of International Economics and Agribusiness, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warszawa, Poland.