Russia's Kosovo Dilemma: Balancing Stature in the West with National Interests

Strategic Insights -

As negotiations between US and Russian military officials in Moscow continue to shape Russia's participation in an international peacekeeping force in Kosovo, tensions remain high. Russia's success in helping forge a peace settlement between Yugoslavia and NATO has elevated its stature in the West, but Russian hard-liners argue that the country caved in to NATO. The Russian government is demanding the creation of a Russian-controlled sector in Kosovo, composed of non-NATO forces from former Soviet countries or neutral countries, and is adamant that their forces will not take orders from NATO.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US rejected the creation of a Russian-controlled sector in Kosovo, with Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott stating that partitioning the province would invite and guarantee a return to conflict.
  • Russia's demands for a sector controlled by non-NATO forces are driven by a deep-seated distrust of the expanded Western military alliance, according to Dmitri Trenin, an analyst with the Carnegie Center in Moscow.
  • Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev stated that Russia is prepared to send up to 10,000 troops, which would severely strain the country's budget, while Roman Popkovich, chairman of the defense committee in the State Duma, estimated that the Russian tab for the Kosovo force would be $150-250 million.
  • Russian military officials are adamant that their forces will not take orders from NATO and are demanding the inclusion of a Russian delegate in the command headquarters of the NATO peacekeeping force.
  • The Russian government is facing opposition from hard-liners and lawmakers who are critical of the peace plan and the potential costs of deployment.
  • Analysts are concerned that Russian troops in Kosovo may be overly sympathetic to their Serbian brothers, which could undermine the effectiveness of the peacekeeping force.

Statistics:

  • 2,500 troops have been tentatively approved for inclusion in the initial contingent (officials say the number could reach as high as 10,000)
  • Russia's military has shrunk from 4 million troops to 1.9 million since the start of the decade
  • The Russian tab for the Kosovo force is expected to be $150-250 million
  • Russia is spending more than $10 million or $15 million a year on its Bosnia peacekeeping force
  • The UN or Western allies are being requested to partially subsidize the costs of the Kosovo peacekeeping force

Sources:

  • The New York Times, "U.S. Rejects Russian Proposal for Separate Sector in Kosovo"
  • Interfax news agency
  • Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services (1999)