Russia's Military Build-Up in Syria Sparks Fears of Provocation and Proxy War

Strategic Insights -

Russian warships have launched 26 cruise missiles at Islamic State targets in Syria, a move that has raised concerns among Western intelligence agencies of a growing military presence in the region. The strike, which was fired from the Caspian Sea almost 1,000 miles away, marks a significant escalation of Russia's involvement in the Syrian conflict. British and US intelligence agencies are on high alert as the Kremlin appears to be targeting not just Islamic State but also moderate rebels opposed to the Assad regime.

Key Takeaways:

  • Russia has launched 26 cruise missiles at Islamic State targets in Syria from the Caspian Sea, a move that marks a significant escalation of its military presence in the region.
  • The attack is seen as a "political message to the West" saying, "Look what we are prepared to do - you've had your chance, now move aside. It's our war now."
  • Russian warships have begun a ground offensive under air cover, indicating Moscow is targeting not just IS but also moderate rebels opposed to the Assad regime.
  • Intelligence agencies fear Putin could be brought to the brink of war with the West if a Russian, British or US warplane is shot down in increasingly congested air space above Iraq and Syria.
  • Sources suggest that Putin has planned his coup for "many months", plotting to join hands with Iran, China and Syria, wipe out opposition to Assad and gain power in the Middle East.
  • The Russian military is using sophisticated fleet in the Caspian, which has no Nato presence, making it harder for the alliance to predict and interpret a strike.
  • The United States has ruled out military cooperation with Russia in Syria's war, with Defence Secretary Ash Carter stating that discussions with Russia will be limited to "basic, technical discussions" on safety procedures for US pilots flying over Syria.
  • There are fears of a military foothold in Iraq, with MI6 and GCHQ officers reporting that hundreds of thousands of dollars have been paid to Iraqi officials by Russian spies in the past four months.
  • The situation is "becoming extremely serious" and could lead to a confrontation of sorts, including the possibility of a warplane being shot down.

Statistics:

  • 26: The number of cruise missiles fired at Islamic State targets in Syria.
  • 1,000 miles: The distance from the Caspian Sea where the missiles were launched.
  • Four: The number of Russian warships involved in the strike.
  • Many months: The amount of time sources suggest Putin has been planning his coup.
  • 10: The number of ships in the Russian naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean, which is a "bit out of the ordinary".
  • Hundreds of thousands of dollars: The amount of money paid to Iraqi officials by Russian spies in the past four months.

Sources:

  • Senior military source
  • US Defence Secretary Ash Carter
  • British and US intelligence agencies
  • MI6 and GCHQ officers
  • Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu
  • Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi
  • US Ambassador to Nato Douglas Lute
  • Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis